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Which Aspects of Central Bank Transparency Matter? Constructing a Weighted Transparency Index

Author

Listed:
  • Csaba Csávás

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

  • Szilárd Erhart

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

  • Dániel Felcser

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

  • Anna Naszodi

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

Abstract
In this paper we investigate the effect of central bank transparency on survey forecasts. Similar to Ehrmann et al. (2010), we find that greater transparency can reduce the degree of disagreement across individual forecasters and it can also improve the forecasting performance of survey respondents. However, our empirical approach is more rigorous than that of Ehrmann et al. (2010) as we test both for causality and misspecification. The analysis is carried out on a panel dataset that is much richer than those used by previous studies. This unique dataset allows us to identify the effects of various aspects of transparency separately and to assign weights to them reflecting their relative importance in reducing uncertainty. Finally, we construct a new composite measure of central bank transparency using the estimated weights.

Suggested Citation

  • Csaba Csávás & Szilárd Erhart & Dániel Felcser & Anna Naszodi, 2012. "Which Aspects of Central Bank Transparency Matter? Constructing a Weighted Transparency Index," MNB Working Papers 2012/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2012/6
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    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp-2012-06.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Monica Jain & Christopher S. Sutherland, 2020. "How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 179-218, October.
    2. Anna Naszodi & Csaba Csavas & Daniel Felcser, 2016. "Which Aspects of Central Bank Transparency Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis of the Effect of Transparency of Survey Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 147-192, December.
    3. Csaba Csavas & Szilard Erhart & Anna Naszodi & Klara Pinter, 2011. "Changing Central Bank Transparency in Central and Eastern Europe During the Financial Crisis," Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis, in: The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Emerging Financial Markets, pages 379-403, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank transparency; survey forecast; weighted transparency index; dynamic panel model; overlapping observations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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