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Aggregate Economy Risk And Company Failure:An Examination Of Uk Quoted Firms In The Early 1990s

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  • John Hunter

    (Brunel University)

  • Natalia Isachenkova

    (Kingston University)

Abstract
Considerable attention has been directed in the recent finance and economics literature to issues concerning the effects on company failure risk of changes in the macroeconomic environment. This paper examines the accounting ratio-based and macroeconomic determinants of insolvency exit of UK large industrials during the early 1990s with a view to improve understanding of company failure risk. Failure determinants are revealed from estimates based on a cross-section of 369 quoted firms, which is followed by an assessment of predictive performance based on a series of time-to-failure-specific logit functions, as is typical in the literature. Within the traditional for cross-sectional data studies framework, a more complete model of failure risk is developed by adding to a set of traditional financial statement-based inputs, the two variables capturing aggregate economy risk - one-year lagged, unanticipated changes in the nominal interest rate and in the real exchange rate. Alternative estimates of prediction error are obtained, first, by analytically adjusting the apparent error rate for the downward bias and, second, by generating holdout predictions. More complete, augmented with the two macroeconomic variables models demonstrate improved out-ofestimation-sample classificatory accuracy at risk horizons ranging from one to four years prior to failure, with the results being quite robust across a wide range of cutoff probability values, for both failing and nonfailed firms. Although in terms of the individual ratio significance and overall predictive accuracy, the findings of the present study may not be directly comparable with the evidence from prior research due to differing data sets and model specifications, the results are intuitively appealing. First, the results affirm the important explanatory role of liquidity, gearing, and profitability in the company failure process. Second, the findings for the failure probability appear to demonstrate that shocks from un
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • John Hunter & Natalia Isachenkova, 2004. "Aggregate Economy Risk And Company Failure:An Examination Of Uk Quoted Firms In The Early 1990s," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 74, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc04:74
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomasz Korol, 2018. "The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic in Forecasting Financial Ratios," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(2), June.
    2. Rose Kenney & Gianni La Cava & David Rodgers, 2016. "Why Do Companies Fail?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. M. A. Lagesh & Maram Srikanth & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Corporate Performance during Business Cycles: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1261-1274, October.
    4. Hunter, John & Wu, Feng, 2014. "Multifactor consumption based asset pricing models using the US stock market as a reference: Evidence from a panel of developed economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 557-565.
    5. Rémi Stellian & Jenny P. Danna‐Buitrago, 2020. "Financial distress, free cash flow, and interfirm payment network: Evidence from an agent‐based model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 598-616, October.
    6. N. Dewaelheyns & C. van Hulle, 2007. "Aggregate Bankruptcy Rates and the Macroeconomic Environment. Forecasting Systematic Probabilities of Default," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(4), pages 541-566.
    7. Chakraborty, Indrani, 2013. "Does capital structure depend on group affiliation? An analysis of Indian firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 110-120.
    8. Korol Tomasz, 2017. "Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 22-35, December.
    9. Jia Liu, 2009. "Business Failures And Macroeconomic Factors In The Uk," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 47-72, January.
    10. Rosario Aldunate, 2021. "Financial Constraints: a Propagation Mechanism of Foreign Shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 897, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Gregoriou, Andros & Hunter, John & Wu, Feng, 2009. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real economy and stock returns for the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 133-143.

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