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Fiscal Shocks, the Trade Balance, and the Exchange Rate

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Abstract
This paper investigates empirically, using a VAR model, the response of the exchange rate and the trade balance to fiscal policy shocks for the U.S. economy during the period 1981:3-2005:3. The results indicate that positive shocks to real government purchases generate a persistent increase in the budget deficit, a transitory expansionary effect on output, and a long-lived positive effect on the price level, but reduce the real interest rate. Simultaneously, and consistent with interest parity, the real exchange rate depreciates, and the trade balance improves. Negative shocks to net taxes also generate a persistent increase in the budget deficit, and the effects on the model variables are generally in the same direction, but are almost never significant. Our results indicate it is inappropriate to attribute rising trade balance deficits to expansionary fiscal policy shocks, even though these shocks generate long-lived increases in the budget deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Faik Koray & W. Douglas McMillin, 2006. "Fiscal Shocks, the Trade Balance, and the Exchange Rate," Departmental Working Papers 2006-02, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:lsu:lsuwpp:2006-02
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    2. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez-López & José Torres, 2011. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 739-766, September.
    3. Khuram Shafi & Liu Hua & Zahra Idrees & Amna Nazeer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic War: A Comparative Study of India and Pakistan," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 257-269, January.
    4. Mthokozisi Mlilo & Umakrishnan Kollamparambi, 2016. "Fiscal policy, employment, and output in South Africa: An open economy analysis," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(3), pages 11-23, June.

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