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CBDC and Banks: Disintermediating Fast and Slow

Author

Listed:
  • Rhys Bidder
  • Timothy Jackson
  • Matthias Rottner
Abstract
We examine the impact of central bank digital currency (CBDC) on banks and the broader economy - drawing on novel survey evidence and using a structural macroeconomic model with endogenous bank runs. A substantial share of German respondents would include CBDCs in their portfolio in normal times - replacing, in part, commercial bank deposits. This is hypothetical evidence for `slow’ disintermediation of the banking system. During periods of banking distress, households' willingness to shift to CBDC is even larger, implying a risk of `fast’ disintermediation. Our structural model captures both phenomena and allows for policy prescriptions. We calibrate to the Euro area and then introduce CBDC, exploiting our survey to parameterize its demand. We find two contrasting effects of CBDC on financial stability. `Slow' disintermediation shrinks a run-prone banking system with positive welfare effects. But the ability of CBDC to offer safety at scale makes bank-runs more likely. For reasonable calibrations, this second `fast disintermediation' effect dominates and the introduction of CBDC decreases financial stability and welfare. However, complementing CBDC with a holding limit or pegging remuneration to policy rates can reverse these results such that CBDC is welfare improving. Such policies retain the gains of increased stability arising from `slow' disintermediation while limiting the downsides of `fast' disintermediation.

Suggested Citation

  • Rhys Bidder & Timothy Jackson & Matthias Rottner, 2024. "CBDC and Banks: Disintermediating Fast and Slow," Working Papers 202407, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:liv:livedp:202407
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    File URL: https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/schoolofmanagement/departmentofeconomics/workingpapers/ECON,WP,202407.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2024
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan Chiu & Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseini & Janet Jiang & Yu Zhu, 2023. "Bank Market Power and Central Bank Digital Currency: Theory and Quantitative Assessment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(5), pages 1213-1248.
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    3. Eun Young Oh & Shuonan Zhang, 2022. "Informal economy and central bank digital currency," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1520-1539, October.
    4. Ahnert, Toni & Assenmacher, Katrin & Hoffmann, Peter & Leonello, Agnese & Monnet, Cyril & Porcellacchia, Davide, 2022. "Cold hard (digital) cash: the economics of central bank digital currency," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 100.
    5. Sebastian Di Tella & Pablo Kurlat, 2021. "Why Are Banks Exposed to Monetary Policy?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 295-340, October.
    6. Ahnert, Toni & Assenmacher, Katrin & Hoffmann, Peter & Leonello, Agnese & Monnet, Cyril & Porcellacchia, Davide, 2022. "The economics of central bank digital currency," Working Paper Series 2713, European Central Bank.
    7. Li, Jiaqi, 2023. "Predicting the demand for central bank digital currency: A structural analysis with survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 73-85.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Saroj Bhattarai & Mohammad Davoodalhosseini & Zhenning Zhao, 2024. "Central Bank Digital Currency and Transmission of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-27, Bank of Canada.
    2. Lambert, Claudia & Larkou, Chloe & Pancaro, Cosimo & Pellicani, Antonella & Sintonen, Meri, 2024. "Digital euro demand: design, individuals’ payment preferences and socioeconomic factors," Working Paper Series 2980, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CBDC; Financial Crises; Disintermediation; Run; Banking System; Money;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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