[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lar/wpaper/2021-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Elections Hinder Firms’ Access to Credit

Author

Listed:
  • Florian LEON

    (FERDI, Clermont-Ferrand)

  • Laurent WEILL

    (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg)

Abstract
We investigate whether the occurrence of elections affect access to credit for firms. We perform an investigation using firm-level data covering 44 developed and developing countries. We find that elections have a detrimental influence on access to credit: firms are more credit-constrained in election years but also in pre-election years. We explain this finding by the fact that elections exacerbate political uncertainty. The negative effect of elections takes place through lower credit demand, whereas the occurrence of elections does not affect credit supply. We further establish that the design of political and financial systems affects how elections influence access to credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian LEON & Laurent WEILL, 2021. "Elections Hinder Firms’ Access to Credit," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2021-03, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
  • Handle: RePEc:lar:wpaper:2021-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ifs.u-strasbg.fr/large/publications/2021/2021-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kee‐Hong Bae & Vidhan K. Goyal, 2009. "Creditor Rights, Enforcement, and Bank Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 823-860, April.
    2. Inessa Love & María Soledad Martínez Pería, 2015. "How Bank Competition Affects Firms' Access to Finance," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 413-448.
    3. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    4. Han, Liang & Fraser, Stuart & Storey, David J., 2009. "Are good or bad borrowers discouraged from applying for loans? Evidence from US small business credit markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 415-424, February.
    5. Gatti, Roberta & Love, Inessa, 2006. "Does access to credit improve productivity ? Evidence from Bulgarian firms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3921, The World Bank.
    6. Anne-Laure Delatte & Adrien Matray & Noémie Pinardon-Touati, 2020. "Private Credit Under Political Influence: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2020-56, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    7. Karsten Müller, 2023. "Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 295-322, November.
    8. Chakravarty, Sugato & Xiang, Meifang, 2013. "The international evidence on discouraged small businesses," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 63-82.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Aniket Baksy & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Jonathan A. Rodden, 2020. "Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 27961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Laeven, Luc & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2006. "The determinants of financing obstacles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 932-952, October.
    11. Azzimonti, Marina, 2018. "Partisan conflict and private investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 114-131.
    12. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez‐De‐Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "Government Ownership of Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 265-301, February.
    13. Ryan, Robert M. & O’Toole, Conor M. & McCann, Fergal, 2014. "Does bank market power affect SME financing constraints?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 495-505.
    14. Craig O. Brown & I. Serdar Dinç, 2005. "The Politics of Bank Failures: Evidence from Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(4), pages 1413-1444.
    15. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    16. Tymon Słoczyński, 2022. "Interpreting OLS Estimands When Treatment Effects Are Heterogeneous: Smaller Groups Get Larger Weights," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(3), pages 501-509, May.
    17. Greene, William, 2010. "Testing hypotheses about interaction terms in nonlinear models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 291-296, May.
    18. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    19. Fafchamps, Marcel & Schündeln, Matthias, 2013. "Local financial development and firm performance: Evidence from Morocco," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 15-28.
    20. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Ongena, Steven, 2020. "Democracy and credit," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 571-596.
    21. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    22. Jun Qian & Philip E. Strahan, 2007. "How Laws and Institutions Shape Financial Contracts: The Case of Bank Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2803-2834, December.
    23. Pierre Mandon & Antoine Cazals, 2019. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation By Leaders Versus Manipulation By Researchers? Evidence From A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 274-308, February.
    24. Roberta Gatti & Inessa Love, 2008. "Does access to credit improve productivity? Evidence from Bulgaria1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 445-465, July.
    25. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    26. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 2006. "Small and medium-size enterprises: Access to finance as a growth constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2931-2943, November.
    27. Dinc, I. Serdar, 2005. "Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 453-479, August.
    28. Clarke, George R.G. & Cull, Robert & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2006. "Foreign bank participation and access to credit across firms in developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 774-795, December.
    29. Liu, Wai-Man & Ngo, Phong T.H., 2014. "Elections, political competition and bank failure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 251-268.
    30. Osei-Tutu, Francis & Weill, Laurent, 2023. "Democracy favors access to credit of firms," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    31. Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2012. "Cross-border banking, credit access, and the financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 147-161.
    32. Daniel Carvalho, 2014. "The Real Effects of Government-Owned Banks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 577-609, April.
    33. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    34. Elizabeth Asiedu & Isaac Kalonda-Kanyama & Leonce Ndikumana & Akwasi Nti-Addae, 2013. "Access to Credit by Firms in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Relevant Is Gender?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 293-297, May.
    35. Huang, Yongfu, 2010. "Political Institutions and Financial Development: An Empirical Study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 1667-1677, December.
    36. Knyazeva, Anzhela & Knyazeva, Diana & Stiglitz, Joseph, 2009. "Ownership changes and access to external financing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1804-1816, October.
    37. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    38. Butler, Alexander W. & Cornaggia, Jess, 2011. "Does access to external finance improve productivity? Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 184-203, January.
    39. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and bank loan contracting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 281-286.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florian LEON & Laurent WEILL, 2021. "Elections Hinder Firms’ Access to Credit," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2021-03, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Osei-Tutu, Francis & Weill, Laurent, 2023. "Democracy favors access to credit of firms," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Francis Osei-Tutu & Laurent Weill, 2024. "Regional favoritism in access to credit," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 293-321, July.
    5. Osei-Tutu, Francis & Weill, Laurent, 2022. "Bank efficiency and access to credit: International evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(3).
    6. Francis OSEI-TUTU & Laurent WEILL, 2020. "Does Access to Credit Come with Access to Voting? Democracy and Firm Financing Constraints," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2020-04, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    7. Karsten Müller, 2023. "Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 295-322, November.
    8. Anne-Laure Delatte & Adrien Matray & Noémie Pinardon-Touati, 2020. "Private Credit Under Political Influence: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2020-56, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    9. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
    10. Janbaz, Mehdi & Hassan, M. Kabir & Floreani, Josanco & Dreassi, Alberto & Jiménez, Alfredo, 2022. "Political risk in banks: A review and agenda," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Yin-Siang Huang & Iftekhar Hasan & Ying-Chen Huang & Chih-Yung Lin, 2021. "Political Uncertainty and Bank Loan Contracts: Does Government Quality Matter?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 157-185, December.
    12. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
    13. Bircan, Çağatay & Saka, Orkun, 2019. "Lending cycles and real outcomes: Costs of political misalignment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Koetter, Michael & Popov, Alexander, 2018. "Politics, banks, and sub-sovereign debt: Unholy trinity or divine coincidence?," Discussion Papers 53/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Woo‐Jong Lee & Jeffrey Pittman & Walid Saffar, 2020. "Political Uncertainty and Cost Stickiness: Evidence from National Elections around the World," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 1107-1139, June.
    17. Matousek, Roman & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Papachristopoulou, Andromachi, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and the capital shortfall of global financial firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Andreas Kern & Puspa Amri, 2021. "Political credit cycles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 76-108, March.
    19. Bertrand, Jérémie & Weill, Laurent, 2023. "Too sunny to borrow: Sunshine and borrower discouragement," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Faraz, Naseem & Rockmore, Marc, 2020. "Election cycles in public credit: Credit provision and default rates in Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    21. Doan, Anh-Tuan & Lin, Kun-Li, 2022. "Bank ownership and stock price informativeness. Does politics matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    22. Leon, Florian, 2015. "Does bank competition alleviate credit constraints in developing countries?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 130-142.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; access to credit; credit constraints.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lar:wpaper:2021-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christophe J. Godlewski (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lastrfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.