[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/ecoaaa/423-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating a Fiscal Reaction Function: The Case of Debt Sustainability in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Luiz de Mello
Abstract
This paper reviews recent trends in fiscal performance in Brazil, estimates fiscal reaction functions for the consolidated public sector and different levels of government, and tests for the sustainability of the public debt dynamics. The empirical analysis, based on monthly data for the period 1995-2004, suggests that all levels of government react strongly to changes in indebtedness by adjusting their primary budget surplus targets. In addition, the central government appears to follow a spend-and-tax policy: changes in revenue are affected strongly by expenditure, with about two-thirds of changes in primary spending being offset through higher revenue over the long term. Institutions are also found to matter for fiscal sustainability. The responsiveness of sub-national fiscal stance to indebtedness, as well as that of central government revenue to changes in primary spending, appears to have strengthened after 1998, when ceilings on indebtedness were introduced. Estimation des fonctions de réaction budgétaire : La soutenabilité de la dynamique de la dette publique au Brésil Cet article examine les tendances récentes des performances budgétaires au Brésil, estime les fonctions de réaction budgétaire pour le secteur public consolidé et les différents niveaux d’administration, et teste la soutenabilité de la dynamique de la dette publique. L'analyse empirique, basée sur des données mensuelles pour la période 1995-2004, suggère que tous les niveaux d’administration réagissent fortement aux changements de l'endettement en ajustant leurs cibles d’excédent budgétaire primaire. En outre, l’administration centrale semble suivre une politique de « dépenses suivi d’impôt »: les changements de revenu sont affectés fortement par les dépenses, avec environ deux tiers des changements de la dépense primaire étant compensée par un plus haut revenu sur le long terme. Les institutions budgétaires sont également importantes en matière de soutenabilité budgétaire. La réaction des administrations locales à l'endettement, ainsi que celle du revenu de l’administration centrale aux changements de la dépense primaire, semble s’être renforcé après 1998, quand des plafonds sur l'endettement ont été introduits.

Suggested Citation

  • Luiz de Mello, 2005. "Estimating a Fiscal Reaction Function: The Case of Debt Sustainability in Brazil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 423, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:423-en
    DOI: 10.1787/556325773018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/556325773018
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/556325773018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability: Cardoso's Brazil, 1995-2002," IMF Working Papers 2004/156, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Roberto Rigobon & Marcio Garcia, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an application to Brazilian data," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 24, Econometric Society.
    4. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
    5. Bohn, Henning & Inman, Robert P., 1996. "Balanced-budget rules and public deficits: evidence from the U.S. states," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 13-76, December.
    6. Henning Bohn & Robert P. Inman, "undated". "Balanced Budget Rules and Public Deficits: Evidence from the U.S. States (Reprint 060)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 10-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2017. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Charl Jooste & Mr. Alfredo Cuevas & Ian C. Stuart & Philippe Burger, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and the fiscal reaction function for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2011/069, International Monetary Fund.
    3. STOIAN, Andreea, 2012. "The Study Of Fiscal Sustainability For The Case Of Overindebted European Countries," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 16(4), pages 43-62.
    4. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Fournier, Jean-Marc & Fall, Falilou, 2017. "Limits to government debt sustainability in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 30-41.
    6. Sakuragawa, Masaya & Sakuragawa, Yukie, 2020. "Government fiscal projection and debt sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    8. Ivantia S. Mokoginta & Ria Marisa Stephanie, 2015. "Structural breaks and fiscal sustainability of the Indonesian government budget," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 7(1), pages 33-47, April.
    9. Tari Lestari, 2014. "Can Indonesia’s Fiscal Policy be Sustained, with Exploding Debt?," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201415, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Nov 2014.
    10. Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Philippe Burger & Krige Siebrits & Estian Calitz, 2015. "The public sector balance sheet and fiscal consolidation in South Africa," Working Papers 11/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    12. Silva, Alexandre Manoel Angelo & Cândido Júnior, José Oswaldo, 2010. "É o mercado míope em relação á política fiscal brasileira?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(4), December.
    13. Luiz de Mello, 2007. "The Brazilian 'Tax War': The Case of Value-Added Tax Competition among the States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 544, OECD Publishing.
    14. Hela Ben Hassine Khalladi, 2019. "Fiscal fatigue, public debt limits and fiscal space in some MENA countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1005-1017.
    15. Kayandabila, Yamungu & Manyama, Mulesi Kanyere, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamic: Evidence from Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 1(2), July.
    16. Guillaume Bousquet & Christian Daude & Christine de la Maisonneuve, 2015. "Fiscal Decentralisation in Colombia: New Evidence Regarding Sustainability, Risk Sharing and “Fiscal Fatigue”," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1202, OECD Publishing.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Viviane Luporini, 2014. "Sustainability Of Brazilian Fiscalpolicy, Once Again: Corrective Policy Response Over Time," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 064, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2006. "The elusive costs and the immaterial gains of fiscal constraints," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1391-1414, September.
    3. Ben Hassine Khalladi, Hela, 2019. "Public Debt Sustainability Assessment: A Stochastic Approach for Tunisia," MPRA Paper 93892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Guerguil, Martine & Mandon, Pierre & Tapsoba, René, 2017. "Flexible fiscal rules and countercyclical fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 189-220.
    5. Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça & Cláudio Hamilton Matos dos Santos, 2008. "Revisitando a Função de Reação Fiscal no Brasil Pós-Real: Uma Abordagem de Mudanças de Regime," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807171729460, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Mr. Evan C Tanner & Issouf Samaké, 2006. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2006/295, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Genberg, Hans & Sulstarova, Astrit, 2008. "Macroeconomic volatility, debt dynamics, and sovereign interest rate spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 26-39, February.
    8. Tielens, J. & van Aarle, B. & Van Hove, J., 2014. "Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.
    9. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, "undated". "Political Institutions and Policy Outcomes: What are the Stylized Facts?," Working Papers 189, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Borge, Lars-Erik, 2005. "Strong politicians, small deficits: evidence from Norwegian local governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 325-344, June.
    11. Martin Melecky, 2012. "Choosing The Currency Structure Of Foreign‐Currency Debt: A Review Of Policy Approaches," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 133-151, March.
    12. Lekniūtė, Zina & Beetsma, Roel & Ponds, Eduard, 2019. "U.S. municipal yields and unfunded state pension liabilities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 15-32.
    13. Chamon, Marcos & Mauro, Paolo, 2006. "Pricing growth-indexed bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3349-3366, December.
    14. Bachtrögler, Julia & Badinger, Harald & Fichet de Clairfontaine, Aurélien & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2014. "Summarizing Data using Partially Ordered Set Theory: An Application to Fiscal Frameworks in 97 Countries," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 181, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    15. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2012. "Fiscal risk in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1289-1309.
    16. Maltritz, Dominik & Wüste, Sebastian, 2015. "Determinants of budget deficits in Europe: The role and relations of fiscal rules, fiscal councils, creative accounting and the Euro," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 222-236.
    17. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2006. "Does It Cost to Be Virtuous? The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Constraints," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 327-370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Aaron Schneider, 2006. "Responding to fiscal stress: Fiscal institutions and fiscal adjustment in four Brazilian states," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 402-425.
    19. Cardona Bermeo, Jorge Enrique, 2002. "Manejo de pasivos contingentes en el marco de la disciplina fiscal en Colombia," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34872, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    20. Udaibir S. Das & Maria A. Oliva & Takahiro Tsuda, 2012. "Sovereign Risk: A Macro-Financial Perspective," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 8(3), pages 367-392, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazil; Brésil; debt sustainability; fiscal reaction function; fiscal rules; fonction de réaction budgétaire; règles budgétaires; soutenabilité de dette;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:423-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.