[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/devaaa/79-fr.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

L'allégement de la dette et croissance : Le cas mexicain

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy
  • Ann Vourc'h
Abstract
Ce document présente un modèle dynamique de simulation de l'économie mexicaine, centré sur les effets de l'endettement public. Trois principales variables sont au coeur de la dynamique économique qui est décrite ici: le taux d'intérêt réel interne, le prix du marché secondaire de la dette, et le taux de change réel. Le taux d'intérêt réel interne, qui intègre une prime de risque sur les placements au Mexique, associée à un risque d'illiquidité du secteur public, exerce en retour une influence sur les comportements d'investissement du secteur privé. Le prix du marché secondaire, qui intègre lui aussi les effets de la prime de risque, traduit par ailleurs les anticipations à long terme en ce qui concerne la fiabilité financière du Mexique, et influence également les comportements d'investissement. Le taux de change réel, qui résulte de l'équilibre macro-économique sur les biens et services, exerce en retour un effet sur les finances publiques par le biais de la valorisation du ... This paper presents a dynamic model simulating the Mexican economy, concentrating on the effects of public indebtedness. Three main variables are at the heart of the economic dynamic which is described here: the real domestic interest rate, the price of the debt on the secondary market, and the real exchange rate. The real domestic interest rate, which includes a risk premium on investments in Mexico, associated to a risk of illiquidity in the public sector, in turn influences the behaviour of private-sector investment. The price on the secondary market, which also includes a risk-bonus factor, in addition influences long-term expectations of the financial reliability of Mexico and therefore affects investment behaviour. The real exchange rate, which depends on the macroeconomic balance between goods and services, in turn affects public finances through the valuation of the contractual service of the external debt. This model is used to simulate the effects of the Brady plan, the ...

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy & Ann Vourc'h, 1992. "L'allégement de la dette et croissance : Le cas mexicain," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:79-fr
    DOI: 10.1787/603151830561
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/603151830561
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/603151830561?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:79-fr. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dcoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.