[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp9299.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Short and Long-Term Effects of Unemployment on Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Currie, Janet

    (Princeton University)

  • Schwandt, Hannes

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract
Scholars have been examining the relationship between fertility and unemployment for more than a century. Most studies find that fertility falls with unemployment in the short run, but it is not known whether these negative effects persist since women may simply postpone child bearing to better economics times. Using over 140 million U.S. birth records for the period 1975 to 2010, we analyze both the short and long-run effects of unemployment on fertility. We follow fixed cohorts of U.S. born women defined by their own state and year of birth, and relate their fertility to the unemployment rate experienced by each cohort at different ages. We focus on conceptions that result in a live birth. We find that women in their early 20s are most affected by high unemployment rates in the short-run and that the negative effects on fertility grow over time. A one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate experienced between the ages of 20 and 24 reduces the short-run fertility of women in this age range by 6 conceptions per 1,000 women. When we follow these women to age 40, we find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate experienced at 20 to 24 leads to an overall loss of 14.2 conceptions. This long-run effect is driven largely by women who remain childless and thus do not have either first births or higher order births.

Suggested Citation

  • Currie, Janet & Schwandt, Hannes, 2015. "Short and Long-Term Effects of Unemployment on Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 9299, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9299
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp9299.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus Brueckner & Hannes Schwandt, 2015. "Income and Population Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(589), pages 1653-1676, December.
    2. Dan A. Black & Natalia Kolesnikova & Seth G. Sanders & Lowell J. Taylor, 2013. "Are Children “Normal”?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 21-33, March.
    3. John Bongaarts & Griffith Feeney, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Reply," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 560-564, September.
    4. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    5. Yuji Genda & Ayako Kondo & Souichi Ohta, 2010. "Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(1).
    6. Ayako Kondo, 2012. "Gender-specific labor market conditions and family formation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 151-174, January.
    7. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
    8. Daniel Aaronson & Fabian Lange & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2014. "Fertility Transitions along the Extensive and Intensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3701-3724, November.
    9. Morris Silver, 1965. "Births, Marriages, and Business Cycles in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 237-237.
    10. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    11. Martha J. Bailey & Melanie Guldi & Brad J. Hershbein, 2014. "Is There a Case for a "Second Demographic Transition?" Three Distinctive Features of the Post-1960 Fertility Decline," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Leah Boustan & Carola Frydman & Robert Margo (ed.),Human Capital in History: The American Record, pages 273-312, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    12. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin & Joseph Song, 2010. "The unemployment gender gap during the 2007 recession," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Feb).
    14. Kenneth W. Wachter, 2005. "Tempo and its Tribulations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(9), pages 201-222.
    15. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    16. Ermisch, John F, 1980. "Time Costs, Aspirations and the Effect of Economic Growth on German Fertility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 42(2), pages 125-143, May.
    17. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    18. Alicia Adsera, 2005. "Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 189-193, May.
    19. Mikko Myrskylä & Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari, 2009. "Advances in development reverse fertility declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 741-743, August.
    20. Jessamyn Schaller, 2013. "For richer, if not for poorer? Marriage and divorce over the business cycle," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1007-1033, July.
    21. John Ermisch, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 563-576.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Delia Furtado, 2016. "Fertility Responses of High-Skilled Native Women to Immigrant Inflows," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(1), pages 27-53, February.
    2. Bastien Chabé-Ferret & Paula Eugenia Gobbi, 2018. "Economics Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom," Working Papers ECARES 2018-19, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Erica Blom & Brian C. Cadena & Benjamin J. Keys, 2021. "Investment over the Business Cycle: Insights from College Major Choice," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 1043-1082.
    4. Hannes Schwandt & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S1), pages 161-198.
    5. Synøve N. Andersen & Nina Drange & Trude Lappegård, 2018. "Can a cash transfer to families change fertility behaviour?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(33), pages 897-928.
    6. Sonia Bhalotra & Abhishek Chakravarty & Dilip Mookherjee & Francisco J. Pino, 2019. "Property Rights and Gender Bias: Evidence from Land Reform in West Bengal," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 205-237, April.
    7. Chiara Ludovica Comolli, 2017. "The fertility response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural economic conditions and perceived economic uncertainty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(51), pages 1549-1600.
    8. Paraskevi K. Salamaliki, 2017. "Births, Marriages, and the Economic Environment in Greece: Empirical Evidence Over Time," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 218-237, June.
    9. Chiara Comolli & Fabrizio Bernardi, 2015. "The causal effect of the great recession on childlessness of white American women," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, December.
    10. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Reginald Covington & Asia Sikora Kessler, 2016. "Labor Market Conditions At School-Leaving: Long-Run Effects On Marriage And Fertility," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 63-88, January.
    11. Barbara Hofmann & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Arne Uhlendorff, 2017. "Job Displacement and First Birth Over the Business Cycle," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(3), pages 933-959, June.
    12. Chabé-Ferret, Bastien, 2019. "Adherence to cultural norms and economic incentives: Evidence from fertility timing decisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 24-48.
    13. Anna Matysiak & Tomáš Sobotka & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 29-64, March.
    14. Yu-Hu LIN & Wen-Yi CHEN, 2018. "On the Relationship between Business Cycle and Fertility Rate in Taiwan: Evidence from the Nonlinear Cointegration Methodology," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 140-156, December.
    15. Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, 2017. "A cohort perspective of the effect of unemployment on fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 1211-1239, October.
    16. Wolfgang Auer, 2018. "Empirical Essays on the Socioeconomic Consequences of Economic Uncertainty," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 79.
    17. Yao Lu & David J. G. Slusky, 2019. "The Impact of Women's Health Clinic Closures on Fertility," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 334-359, Summer.
    18. Ayako Kondo, 2016. "The effects of recessions on family formation," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 248-248, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiara Comolli & Fabrizio Bernardi, 2015. "The causal effect of the great recession on childlessness of white American women," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Johanna Catherine Maclean & Reginald Covington & Asia Sikora Kessler, 2016. "Labor Market Conditions At School-Leaving: Long-Run Effects On Marriage And Fertility," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 63-88, January.
    3. James M. Raymo & Akihisa Shibata, 2017. "Unemployment, Nonstandard Employment, and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2301-2329, December.
    4. Hofmann, Barbara & Hohmeyer, Katrin, 2016. "The effect of the business cycle at college graduation on fertility," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-102.
    5. Eleanor Jawon Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2019. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Upjohn Working Papers 19-312, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    6. Alicia Adsera, 2011. "Where Are the Babies? Labor Market Conditions and Fertility in Europe [Où sont les bébés ? Conditions du marché du travail et fécondité en Europe]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32, February.
    7. Eleanor J. Choi & Jaewoo Choi & Hyelim Son, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers 637, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    8. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Gietel-Basten, 2014. "Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(23), pages 687-734.
    9. Choi, Eleanor J. & Choi, Jaewoo & Son, Hyelim, 2020. "The Long-Term Effects of Labor Market Entry in a Recession: Evidence from the Asian Financial Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 13009, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Alberto Cazzola & Lucia Pasquini & Aurora Angeli, 2016. "The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(1), pages 1-38.
    11. Kristiina Huttunen & Jenni Kellokumpu, 2016. "The Effect of Job Displacement on Couples' Fertility Decisions," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 403-442.
    12. Kristen Harknett & Francesco Billari & Carla Medalia, 2014. "Do Family Support Environments Influence Fertility? Evidence from 20 European Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 1-33, February.
    13. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Basten, 2012. "Have Lifetime Fertility Intentions Declined During the “Great Recession”?," VID Working Papers 1209, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    14. Coskun, Sena & Dalgic, Husnu C., 2024. "The emergence of procyclical fertility: The role of breadwinner women," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    15. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
    16. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    17. Kasey Buckles & Daniel Hungerman & Steven Lugauer, 2021. "Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 541-565.
    18. Mattias Engdahl & Mathilde Godard & Oskar N Skans, 2018. "Early Labor Market Prospects and Family Formation," Working Papers halshs-01958437, HAL.
    19. Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, 2017. "A cohort perspective of the effect of unemployment on fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 1211-1239, October.
    20. Deniz D. Karaman Örsal & Joshua R. Goldstein, 2010. "The increasing importance of economic conditions on fertility," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; fertility;

    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9299. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.