[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/isu/genstf/1992010108000011323.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An assessment of the likely impact of the liberalization of the Soviet economy on Soviet patterns of trade

Author

Listed:
  • Kumi, Alexander
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of an economic transition from a centrally planned to a market economy on Soviet trade patterns. The Heckscher-Ohlin model, which is a standard general equilibrium model in international trade that predicts the patterns of trade based solely on resource endowments was used for this study;The Heckscher-Ohlin theorem, which is the core of the model states that a country will export the commodity which uses relatively intensively the factor which is relatively abundant in that country. Vanek's 1968 contribution to the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem, in which he referred to the factor services embodied in the goods traded, has made the model useful in empirical work. The ensuing Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek linear equations are a set of relationships among industry factor requirements, international trade in commodities, and excess factor endowment supplies;To use these equations to predict Soviet trade patterns, data for Soviet resource endowments, U.S. technology matrix, and resource endowments for 45 countries considered as the rest of the world were used. Data for dollar/ruble exchange rate and the GNP were also required for the model simulation;The Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek model predicted that Soviet patterns of trade will change most significantly in agricultural commodities after economic liberalization. The Soviet Union will move from a negative to a positive trade balance in this category. According to the model, the trade patterns do not change much in primary products and manufactures after a market economy is developed;The impact of economic liberalization on Soviet agricultural trade patterns was also examined. The model predicted that the Soviet Union will become a net grain exporter. The Soviets will export wheat and barley and import corn, oilseeds, and meat.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumi, Alexander, 1992. "An assessment of the likely impact of the liberalization of the Soviet economy on Soviet patterns of trade," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000011323, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:1992010108000011323
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/3864d655-c0b3-4011-8738-4e3400bb8a0e/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R McKinnon, 1991. "Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0040, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Daberkow, Stan G. & Parks, John, 1990. "Global Trade in Agricultural Inputs," Statistical Bulletin 154716, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    4. Harkness, Jon P, 1983. "The Factor-Proportions Model with Many Nations, Goods and Factors: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 298-305, May.
    5. Csaki, C., 1990. "Opening Address: Agricultural Policy Changes In Eastern Europe at the Beginning of the Nineties," 1990 Symposium, Agricultural Restructuring in Southern Africa, July 24-27, 1990, Swakopmund, Namibia 183479, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Sveikauskas, Leo A, 1983. "Science and Technology in United States Foreign Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 542-554, September.
    7. Brooks, Karen M. & Guasch, Jose Luis & Braverman, Avishay & Csaki, Csaba, 1991. "Agriculture and the transition to the market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 666, The World Bank.
    8. Avishay Braverman & J. Luis Guasch, 1990. "Agricultural Reform in Developing Countries: Reflections for Eastern Europe," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1243-1251.
    9. Sveikauskas, Leo, 1981. "Technological Inputs and Multifactor Productivity Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 275-282, May.
    10. Braverman, Avishay & Guasch, J. Luis, 1990. "Agricultural reform in developing countries : reflections for Eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 538, The World Bank.
    11. Alan V. Deardorff & Robert W. STAIGER, 2011. "An Interpretation Of The Factor Content Of Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 38, pages 531-545, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Alan V. Deardorff, 2011. "The General Validity of the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 11, pages 91-103, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Bowen, Harry P & Leamer, Edward E & Sveikauskas, Leo, 1987. "Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 791-809, December.
    14. Harkness, Jon P, 1978. "Factor Abundance and Comparative Advantage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 784-800, December.
    15. Chang, Winston W, 1979. "Some Theorems of Trade and General Equilibrium with Many Goods and Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 709-726, May.
    16. Alan V. DEARDORFF, 2011. "Weak Links In The Chain Of Comparative Advantage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 9, pages 59-71, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Deardorff, Alan V., 1984. "Testing trade theories and predicting trade flows," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 467-517, Elsevier.
    18. Murrell, Peter, 1981. "An evaluation of the success of the hungarian economic reform: An analysis using international-trade data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 352-366, December.
    19. Baldwin, Robert E, 1971. "Determinants of the Commodity Structure of U.S. Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 126-146, March.
    20. Jones, Ronald W & Scheinkman, Jose A, 1977. "The Relevance of the Two-Sector Production Model in Trade Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 909-935, October.
    21. Csaba Csáki, 1990. "Agricultural Changes in Eastern Europe at the Beginning of the 1990s," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1233-1242.
    22. Diewert, W E & Woodland, A D, 1977. "Frank Knight's Theorem in Linear Programming Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 375-398, March.
    23. Bowen, Harry P, 1983. "Changes in the International Distribution of Resources and Their Impact on U.S. Comparative Advantage," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 402-414, August.
    24. Desai, Padma, 1986. "Weather and grain yields in the Soviet Union:," Research reports 54, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    25. Rausser, Gordon C., 1990. "Implications of the structural adjustment experience in the developing world for Eastern Europe: discussion," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7ng254k0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    26. Gordon C. Rausser, 1990. "Implications of the Structural Adjustment Experience in the Developing World for Eastern Europe: Discussion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1252-1256.
    27. Murrell, Peter, 1982. "Product Quality, Market Signaling and the Development of East-West Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(4), pages 589-603, October.
    28. Gift, Richard & Marxsen, William, 1984. "Aggregation and the Factoral Content of Trade: Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 979-984, October.
    29. Staiger, Robert W., 1988. "A specification test of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 129-141, August.
    30. Maskus, Keith E., 1985. "A test of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek theorem: The Leontief commonplace," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 201-212, November.
    31. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "The two-sector model in terms of its dual : A geometric exposition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 513-526, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Bernhofen, 2010. "The Empirics of General Equilibrium Tade Theory: What Have we Learned?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3242, CESifo.
    2. Keith Maskus & Catherine Sveikauskas & Allan Webster, 1994. "The composition of the human capital stock and its relation to international trade: Evidence from the US and Britain," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(1), pages 50-76, March.
    3. Bernstein, Jeffrey R. & Weinstein, David E., 2002. "Do endowments predict the location of production?: Evidence from national and international data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 55-76, January.
    4. Bowen, Harry P & Leamer, Edward E & Sveikauskas, Leo, 1987. "Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 791-809, December.
    5. Cörvers F. & Reininga T., 1998. "The Dutch Factor Content of Human and Physical Capital: A Test of the HOV Model," ROA Research Memorandum 001, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    6. Jäkel, Ina C. & Smolka, Marcel, 2017. "Trade policy preferences and factor abundance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Corvers, Frank & de Grip, Andries, 1997. "Explaining trade in industrialized countries by country-specific human capital endowments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 395-416, July.
    8. Dumont, Michel, 2004. "The Impact of International Trade with Newly Industrialised Countries on the Wages and Employment of Low-Skilled and High-Skilled Workers in the European Union," Thesis Commons bmxag, Center for Open Science.
    9. Harry P. Bowen & Leo Sveikauskas, 1992. "Judging Factor Abundance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 599-620.
    10. Lundmark, Robert, 2010. "European trade in forest products and fuels," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 235-251, August.
    11. John Romalis, 2004. "Factor Proportions and the Structure of Commodity Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 67-97, March.
    12. Uday Rajan, 1995. "Refutable Implications of the Heckscher-Ohlin Model," International Trade 9502001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Greenaway, David & Torstensson, Johan, 2000. "Economic Geography, Comparative Advantage and Trade within Industries: Evidence from the OECD," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 15, pages 260-280.
    14. Schmid, A. Allan, 1992. "Institutional Foundations of the Market Economy with Reference to the Transition Process taking Place in Eastern and Central Europe," Staff Paper Series 201152, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    15. Assaf Zimring, 2019. "Testing the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek theory with a natural experiment," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 58-92, February.
    16. Harrigan, James, 1997. "Technology, Factor Supplies, and International Specialization: Estimating the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 475-494, September.
    17. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2001. "An Account of Global Factor Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1423-1453, December.
    18. Assaf Zimring, 2015. "Testing the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Theory with a Natural Experiment," Working Papers 642, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    19. James R. Markusen, 2021. "Putting per-capita income back into trade theory," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 10, pages 187-197, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Agelos Delis & Theofanis P. Mamuneas, 2013. "A Dual Definition For The Factor Content Of Trade And Its Effect On Factor Rewards In Us Manufacturing Sector," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 72-87, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:1992010108000011323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Curtis Balmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.