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Estimating Output Gap for the Indian Economy: Comparing Results from Unobserved-Components Models and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter

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  • Virmani, Vineet
Abstract
Output gap estimates are constructed for India using unobserved components model (UCM) approach on the lines of Watson (1986) and Kuttner (1994). Results from UCMs are not found to be any less sensitive to data revisions when compared to those from the Hodrick-Prescott filter. This, however, could be because of lack of sufficient ‘revised-data’ on which the sensitivity of the results can be tested. Based on standard deviation of change in potential output to data revisions and its ‘economic’ content, the UCM using trimmed mean as the numeraire for inflation comes forth as the best choice. Alternative estimates of “core” inflation, included as a state variable in one of the UCMs, are also provided

Suggested Citation

  • Virmani, Vineet, 2004. "Estimating Output Gap for the Indian Economy: Comparing Results from Unobserved-Components Models and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-04-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:iim:iimawp:wp01808
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Estimation of the business cycle: A modified Hodrick-Prescott filter," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 175-206.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
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    4. Domenech, Rafael & Gomez, Victor, 2006. "Estimating Potential Output, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU as Latent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 354-365, July.
    5. Maral Kichian, 1999. "Measuring Potential Output within a State-Space Framework," Staff Working Papers 99-9, Bank of Canada.
    6. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
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    1. Ball, Laurence & Chari, Anusha & Mishra, Prachi, 2016. "Understanding Inflation in India," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 1-45.
    2. Paul, Biru Paksha, 2009. "In search of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 479-488, September.
    3. Singh, B. Karan & Kanakaraj, A. & Sridevi, T.O., 2011. "Revisiting the empirical existence of the Phillips curve for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 247-258, June.
    4. Mohanty, Deepak & John, Joice, 2015. "Determinants of inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 86-96.
    5. Virmani, Vineet, 2004. "Operationalising Taylor-type Rules for the Indian Economy: Issues and Some Results (1992Q3 2001Q4)," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-07-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    6. Muhammad Ayyoub & Julia Wörz, 2019. "What Drives Inflation-Output Tradeoff Dynamics in Pakistan? An Assessment of International Linkages and Global Trends," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 55-81, Jan-June.
    7. Sunil Paul & Sartaj Rasool Rather & M. Ramachandran, 2015. "Money and Inflation: Evidence from P-Star Model," Working Papers 2015-115, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    8. Ashima Goyal & Gagan Goel, 2021. "Correlated Shocks, Hysteresis, and the Sacrifice Ratio: Evidence from India," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2929-2945, August.
    9. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2017. "Is the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Some Emerging Economies," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(3), pages 427-449, September.
    10. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "The stability of the Phillips curve in India: Does the Lucas critique apply?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 528-539.

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