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25 years of excess unemployment in advanced economies: Lessons for monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph E. Gagnon

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Madi Sarsenbayev

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract
For about 25 years before the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation was very low and stable in most advanced economies. A little noticed dark side of this impressive achievement is that unemployment rates were almost always higher than needed to keep inflation low. This widespread and persistent policy error arose because of a major flaw in standard macroeconomic models--the use of a linear Phillips curve. This flaw would have been far less costly if central banks had not chosen such a low target for inflation. This paper thus adds to the arguments in favor of a moderately higher inflation target. Even without a higher target, central banks need to use a broader range of economic models and should verify their estimates of the natural rate of unemployment by running the economy hot from time to time in order to see nascent inflationary pressure before throttling back.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph E. Gagnon & Madi Sarsenbayev, 2022. "25 years of excess unemployment in advanced economies: Lessons for monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP22-17, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp22-17
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    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/25-years-excess-unemployment-advanced-economies-lessons-monetary-policy
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear Phillips curve; equilibrium rate of unemployment (U*); equilibrium real rate of interest (R*); inflation target; downward wage and price rigidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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