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Towards the EMU: A Need For Exchange Rate Flexibility?

Author

Listed:
  • Cincibuch, Martin

    (Czech National Bank)

  • Vávra, David

    (CERGE-EI)

Abstract
We address the question of exchange rate regime for the Czech Republic before it enters the EU and the EMU. We classify macroeconomic impacts of a single currency regime according to the traditional OCA theory. Using quantitative measures, we find the degree of macroeconomic convergence between the Czech and German (EU) economies high enough not to form a major obstacle to a common currency regime. In addition, we look at transitional specificities of the Czech economy. We analyse the real appreciation of the Czech currency and its relationship to competitiveness and find that development of cost factors exercise depreciationary pressures on the exchange rate. Conversely, a fixed regime may alleviate problems of the foreign capital influx and ensuing nominal appreciation - another idiosyncrasy of the Czech economy. However, once labour market rigidities are removed, a fixed regime may become a source of a sustainable competitive advantage, growth, and convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Cincibuch, Martin & Vávra, David, 2000. "Towards the EMU: A Need For Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Transition Economics Series 17, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihstep:17
    as

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    File URL: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/1268
    File Function: First version, 2000
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Alexoaei Alina Petronela & Robu Raluca Georgiana, 2018. "A theoretical review on the structural convergence issue and the relation to economic development in integration areas," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 34-44, May.
    4. Martin Cincibuch & Jiří Podpiera, 2006. "Beyond Balassa–Samuelson: Real appreciation in tradables in transition countries1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(3), pages 547-573, July.
    5. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Vit Barta, 2005. "Fulfilment of the Maastricht Inflation Criterion by the Czech Republic: Potential Costs and Policy Options," Research and Policy Notes 2005/04, Czech National Bank.
    7. Weimann, Marco, 2002. "OCA theory and EMU eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/02, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    8. Martin Cincibuch & Jiri Podpiera, 2004. "Beyond Balassa - Samuelson: Real Appreciation in Tradables in Transition Countries," Working Papers 2004/09, Czech National Bank.
    9. García-Solanes, José & Sancho-Portero, F. Israel & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2008. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson effect in some new member states of the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 17-32, March.
    10. Peter Backé & Jarko Fidrmuc & Thomas Reininger & Franz Schardax, 2002. "Price Dynamics in Central and Eastern European EU Accession," Working Papers 61, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Czech Republic; Eurisation; Optimum currency areas; Real exchange rate; Competitiveness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • P22 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Prices
    • P29 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Other

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