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Worker mobility and labour market opportunities

Author

Listed:
  • Monica Costa Dias

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Ella Johnson-Watts

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Robert Joyce

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Fabien Postel-Vinay

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London)

  • Peter Spittal

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bristol)

  • Xiaowei Xu

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract
We develop a measure of labour market opportunities for heterogenous types of worker, exploiting information on their suitability di?erent jobs encoded in historical patterns of worker mobility. We provide a theoretical foundation for our measure, which features naturally in a general random search framework. Our measure is ?exible in the sense that it admits general de?nitions of worker and job heterogeneity, and is easily implementable empirically with data on worker mobility and labour demand. We apply our measure to high-quality data on labour demand in the UK, based on the universe of 104.7 million job adverts posted online from January 2015 to June 2021. We demonstrate the utility of our measure with an analysis of worker prospects throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. First, while the direct impact of lockdown policies was concentrated on relatively few industries, labour demand fell much more broadly. And, as our measure highlights, the full e?ects were broader still because of the disruption to usual career progression, even for those in less-a?ected sectors such as healthcare. Second, despite aggregate labour demand returning to pre-pandemic levels by June 2021, 25% of the workforce faced new job opportunities more than 10% below pre-pandemic levels. This is because of a change in the composition of vacancy postings (towards lower-paying occupations) which our measure of labour market opportunities is sensitive to. Finally, the majority (64%) of unemployed workers faced at least 10% more competition for jobs from unemployed jobseekers than before the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Costa Dias & Ella Johnson-Watts & Robert Joyce & Fabien Postel-Vinay & Peter Spittal & Xiaowei Xu, 2021. "Worker mobility and labour market opportunities," IFS Working Papers W21/29, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/29
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huitfeldt, Ingrid & Kostøl, Andreas R. & Nimczik, Jan & Weber, Andrea, 2023. "Internal labor markets: A worker flow approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 661-688.
    2. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2020. "Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    3. Ay?egül ?ahin & Joseph Song & Giorgio Topa & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Mismatch Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3529-3564, November.
    4. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2018. "Who Moves Up the Job Ladder?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(S1), pages 301-336.
    5. Hensvik, Lena & Le Barbanchon, Thomas & Rathelot, Roland, 2021. "Job search during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    6. Gregor Jarosch & Jan Sebastian Nimczik & Isaac Sorkin, 2019. "Granular Search, Market Structure, and Wages," NBER Working Papers 26239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Shigeru Fujita & Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2024. "Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 1-51, July.
    8. Suphanit Piyapromdee & Peter Spittal, 2020. "The Income and Consumption Effects of COVID‐19 and the Role of Public Policy," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(4), pages 805-827, December.
    9. Schmutte, Ian M., 2014. "Free to Move? A Network Analytic Approach for Learning the Limits to Job Mobility," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 49-61.
    10. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2012. "The Contribution of Large and Small Employers to Job Creation in Times of High and Low Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2509-2539, October.
    11. Patterson, Christina & Şahin, Ayşegül & Topa, Giorgio & Violante, Giovanni L., 2016. "Working hard in the wrong place: A mismatch-based explanation to the UK productivity puzzle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 42-56.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/59cr4u3mmr9pobrceptvua5g8c is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Robert Joyce & Xiaowei Xu, 2020. "COVID‐19 and Inequalities," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 291-319, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Henry Redondo, 2023. "From bricklayers to waiters: Reallocation in a deep recession," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 27, Stata Users Group.

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