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Climate Change, Weather Insurance Design and Hedging Effectiveness

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Abstract
The insurance industry has so far relied on historical data to develop and price weather insurance contracts. In light of climate change, we examine the effects of this practice in terms of the hedging effectiveness and profitability of insurance contracts. We use simulated crop and weather data for today’s and future climatic conditions to derive optimal weather insurance contracts. We assess the hedging effectiveness and profits of adjusted contracts that are designed with data that accounts for the changing distribution of weather and yields due to climate change. We find that, with climate change, the benefits from hedging with adjusted contracts almost triple and expected profits increase by about 240%. Furthermore, we investigate the effect on risk reduction (for the insured) and profits (for the insurer) from hedging future weather risks with non-adjusted contracts, which are based on historical weather and yield data. When offering non-adjusted insurance contracts, we find that insurers either face substantial losses, or generate profits that are significantly smaller than profits from offering adjusted insurance products. Non-adjusted insurance contracts that create profits in excess of the profits from adjusted contracts cause at the same time negative hedging benefits for the insured. We observe that non-adjusted contracts exist that create simultaneously positive profits and hedging benefits, however at a much larger uncertainty compared to the corresponding adjusted contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ines Kapphan & Pierluigi Calanca & Annelie Holzkaemper, 2011. "Climate Change, Weather Insurance Design and Hedging Effectiveness," IED Working paper 11-17, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ied:wpsied:11-17
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    File URL: http://www.ied.ethz.ch/pub/pdf/IED_WP17_Kapphan_et_al.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Thomas Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda & Renate Schubert, 2011. "Energy-Using Durables: The Role of Time Discounting in Investment Decisions," IED Working paper 11-16, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
    10. Michael Hartmann & Robert Huber & Simon Peter & Bernard Lehmann, 2009. "Strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas and nitrogen emissions in Swiss agriculture: the application of an integrated sector model," IED Working paper 09-09, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
    11. Markus Ohndorf, 2010. "Optimal Monitoring for project-based Emissions Trading Systems under incomplete Enforcement," IED Working paper 10-13, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
    12. Stefanie Engel & Charles Palmer, 2008. "“Painting the Forest REDD?” Prospects for Mitigating Climate Change Through Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation," IED Working paper 08-03, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
    13. Salvatore Di Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2011. "On Adaptation to Climate Change and Risk Exposure in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia," IED Working paper 11-15, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
    14. Lasse Wallquist & Mischa Werner, 2008. "Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage - CCS : Studie zum Entwicklungsstand von CSS in der Schweiz," IED Working paper 08-04, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
    15. Salvatore Di Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2011. "On Adaptation to Climate Change and Risk Exposure in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia," IED Working paper 11-15, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Blasch & Mehdi Farsi, 2012. "Retail demand for voluntary carbon offsets - A choice experiment among Swiss consumers," IED Working paper 12-18, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
    2. Ines Kapphan & Pierluigi Calanca & Annelie Holzkaemper, 2012. "Climate Change, Weather Insurance Design and Hedging Effectiveness," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 37(2), pages 286-317, April.
    3. Jesse Tack & Ardian Harri & Keith Coble, 2012. "More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1037-1054.
    4. Michele Baggio, 2012. "The Optimal Management of a Natural Resource with Switching Dynamics," IED Working paper 12-19, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.

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    Keywords

    weather insurance design; climate change; non-stationarity; hedging effectiveness;
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