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Divorce and the business cycle: a cross-country analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael González-Val

    (Universidad de Zaragoza & IEB)

  • Miriam Marcén

    (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Abstract
In this paper, we examine the role of the business cycle in divorce. To do so, we use a panel of 29 European countries covering the period from 1991 to 2012. We find the unemployment rate negatively affects the divorce rate, pointing to a pro-cyclical evolution of the divorce rate, even after controlling for socio-economic variables and unobservable characteristics that can vary by country, and/or over time. Results indicate that a one-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate involves almost 0.025 fewer divorces per thousand inhabitants. The impact is small, representing around 1.2% of the average divorce rate in Europe during the period considered. Supplementary analysis, developed to explore a possible non-linear pattern, confirms a negative relationship between unemployment and divorce in European countries, with the inverse relationship being more pronounced in those countries with higher divorce rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael González-Val & Miriam Marcén, 2015. "Divorce and the business cycle: a cross-country analysis," Working Papers 2015/34, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    • Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2015-34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Cavallini, Flavia, 2024. "Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Rafael González-Val & Miriam Marcén, 2015. "Regional unemployment, marriage, and divorce," Working Papers 2015/38, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    4. Mizuki Komura & Hikaru Ogawa, 2022. "COVID-19, marriage, and divorce in Japan," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 831-853, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Divorce; unemployment; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure

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