[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/idn/wpaper/wp012023.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Future Central Banking In Emerging Market Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Solikin M. Juhro

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract
This paper elaborates the theoretical and practical perspectives of future central bank policy in emerging market economies (EMEs). With salient thoughts presented to expand broader horizons, a special overview is presented on the experiences and practices of central bank policies in EMEs. For EME central banks, complex challenges are inevitable considering the current state of economic progress, economic endowments, and institutional capacity. Several theoretical assumptions that underlie policy thinking are also substantively not the case for EMEs. These conditions, however, provide broad opportunities and space for central banks in EME countries to deliver policy innovations and breakthroughs, not only from a practical level, but also a theoretical perspective. The implementation of flexible inflation targeting framework (ITF) and the central bank policy mix, as well as the policy trilemma management of an open economy are among many examples of how central bank policy has evolved towards a more integrated framework. Eventually, to become a relevant regulator, the central bank must put extra effort into strengthening policy coordination and institutional arrangements, fostering new sources of growth to support a broader scope of welfare amelioration, while reinforcing the central bank policy mix in the new era

Suggested Citation

  • Solikin M. Juhro, 2023. "Future Central Banking In Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers WP/01/2023, Bank Indonesia.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp012023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://publication-bi.org/repec/idn/wpaper/WP012023.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2023
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2012. "Trilemma policy convergence patterns and output volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 269-285.
    2. Thomas I. Palley, 2009. "Rethinking the economics of capital mobility and capital controls," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 29(3), pages 15-34.
    3. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    4. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "What Anchors for the Natural Rate of Interest?," PIER Discussion Papers 98, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    6. Escudé, Guillermo J., 2014. "The possible trinity: Optimal interest rate, exchange rate, and taxes on capital flows in a DSGE model for a small open economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-58.
    7. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    8. Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
    9. Perry Warjiyo, 2021. "Rethinking Macroeconomy and Central Banking in the New Normal," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(Special I), pages 1-1, January.
    10. Fabio Araujo, 2022. "Initial steps towards a central bank digital currency by the Central Bank of Brazil," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), CBDCs in emerging market economies, volume 123, pages 31-37, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Unemployment And Inflation: Evidence Of A Nonlinear Phillips Curve In The Eurozone," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 53(4), pages 151-163, Fall.
    12. Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Amir Sufi, 2019. "Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?," NBER Working Papers 25792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September.
    14. Zohair Alam & Mr. Adrian Alter & Jesse Eiseman & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Heedon Kang & Mr. Machiko Narita & Erlend Nier & Naixi Wang, 2019. "Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/066, International Monetary Fund.
    15. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    16. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    17. Joshua Aizenman, 2011. "Trilemma and Financial Stability Configurations in Asia," Finance Working Papers 23219, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    18. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Alper, Koray & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., 2014. "Sudden floods, macroprudential regulation and stability in an open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 68-100.
    19. Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 283-299.
    20. Raphael Auer & Codruta Boar & Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost & Henry Holden & Andreas Wehrli, 2021. "CBDCs beyond borders: results from a survey of central banks," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 116.
    21. Sally Chen & Tirupam Goel & Han Qiu & Ilhyock Shim, 2022. "CBDCs in emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), CBDCs in emerging market economies, volume 123, pages 1-21, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann, 2022. "What drives inflation? Disentangling demand and supply factors," BIS Working Papers 1047, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Swarnali Ahmed Hannan, 2017. "The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-28, June.
    24. Perry Warjiyo, 2022. "A Reflection Of Sustainable Inclusive Growth Post-Pandemic And The Central Bank’S Challenges Beyond Stability," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(Special I), pages 1-1, March.
    25. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    26. Ms. Hélène Poirson, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries," IMF Working Papers 2021/014, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Claudio Borio & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Macro-Financial Stability Frameworks: Experience and Challenges," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Claudio Borio & Edward S Robinson & Hyun Song Shin (ed.), MACRO-FINANCIAL STABILITY POLICY IN A GLOBALISED WORLD: LESSONS FROM INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE Selected Papers from the Asian Monetary Policy Forum 202, chapter 3, pages 2-49, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    28. Solikin M. Juhro, 2022. "Central Banking Practices in the Digital Era: Salient Challenges, Lessons, and Implications," Springer Books, in: Perry Warjiyo & Solikin M. Juhro (ed.), Central Bank Policy Mix: Issues, Challenges, and Policy Responses, chapter 0, pages 261-275, Springer.
    29. Novi Maryaningsih & Suahasil Nazara & Febrio N. Kacaribu & Solikin M. Juhro, 2022. "Central Bank Digital Currency: What Factors Determine Its Adoption?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(1), pages 1-24, June.
    30. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    31. Syed Kanwar Abbas & Prasad Sankar Bhattacharya & Debdulal Mallick & Pasquale Sgro, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: Empirical Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 409-434, September.
    32. Zineddine Alla & Raphael A. Espinoza & Atish R. Ghosh, 2020. "FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1755-1791, October.
    33. Alexander Lubis & Constantinos Alexiou & Joseph G. Nellis, 2019. "What Can We Learn From The Implementation Of Monetary And Macroprudential Policies: A Systematic Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 1123-1150, September.
    34. Jašová, Martina & Moessner, Richhild & Takáts, Előd, 2020. "Domestic and global output gaps as inflation drivers: What does the Phillips curve tell?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 238-253.
    35. Byrne, David & Zekaite, Zivile, 2020. "Non-linearity in the wage Phillips curve: Euro area analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    36. Ulrich Volz, 2015. "Navigating the Trilemma: Central Banking in East Asia Between Inflation Targeting, Exchange-Rate Management and Guarding Financial Stability," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Frank Rövekamp & Moritz Bälz & Hanns Günther Hilpert (ed.), Central Banking and Financial Stability in East Asia, edition 127, pages 157-167, Springer.
    37. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through & management of inflation expectations in a small open inflation targeting economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 178-188.
    38. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    39. Perry Warjiyo, 2023. "Synergy Of Economic Policies And Innovation In Driving Momentum For Sustainable Global Economic Recovery In The Era Of Digital Transformation," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(Special I), pages 1-8, February.
    40. Hooper, Peter & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Sufi, Amir, 2020. "Prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy: Is the Phillips curve dead or is it just hibernating?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 26-62.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrik Kupkovic, 2020. "R-star in Transition Economies: Evidence from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    2. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "On the international co-movement of natural interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Marius ACATRINEI & Dan ARMEANU & Carmen Elena DOBROTA, 2018. "Natural Interest Rate for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 104-116, September.
    4. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
    5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    6. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Papafilis, Michalis & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2018. "Some Thoughts on the External Finance Premium and the Cost of Internal Finance," MPRA Paper 85261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2016. "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rate in the U.S," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 708-731, November.
    8. Dennis Bonam & Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Marco Hoeberichts & Anna Samarina & Irina Stanga, 2019. "Inflation in the euro area since the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Occasional Studies 1703, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2024. "Assessing the impossible trinity principle in BRICS grouping," MPRA Paper 121839, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Melchisedek Joslem Ngambou Djatche, 2022. "Monetary policy, prudential policy and bank's risk‐taking: A literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1559-1590, December.
    11. Zhang, Ren & Martínez-García, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Grossman, Valerie, 2021. "Ties that bind: Estimating the natural rate of interest for small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Andrey Sinyakov & Alexey Porshakov, 2019. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest for Russia: Is 'Navigating by the Stars' Useful?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(4), pages 3-47, December.
    13. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?," BIS Working Papers 982, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Glick, Reuven, 2020. "r* and the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    15. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    16. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Narita, Machiko & Rawat, Umang & Sahay, Ratna, 2023. "Addressing Spillovers from Prolonged U.S. Monetary Policy Easing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Michael Kiley & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2024. "Central Banking Post Crises," NBER Working Papers 32237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Feng Zhu, 2016. "A spectral perspective on natural interest rates in Asia-Pacific: changes and possible drivers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 63-149, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2023. "Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why “too” low (high) for “so” long?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 539-565, February.
    20. Peter D. Williams & Mr. Yasser Abdih & Emanuel Kopp, 2020. "Reading the Stars," IMF Working Papers 2020/136, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank policy mix; integrated policy framework; inflation targeting; central bank in emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp012023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lutzardo Tobing or Jimmy Kathon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bigovid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.