[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/idb/brikps/11787.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Education, Income and Mobility: Experimental Impacts of Childhood Exposure to Progresa after 20 Years

Author

Listed:
  • Araujo, María Caridad
  • Macours, Karen
Abstract
In 1997, the Mexican government designed the conditional cash transfer program Progresa, which became the worldwide model of a new approach to social programs, simultaneously targeting human capital accumulation and poverty reduction. A large literature has documented the short and medium-term impacts of the Mexican program and its successors in other countries. Using Progresas experimental evaluation design originally rolled out in 1997-2000, and a tracking survey conducted 20 years later, this paper studies the differential long-term impacts of exposure to Progresa. We focus on two cohorts of children: i) those that during the period of differential exposure were in-utero or in the first years of life, and ii) those who during the period of differential exposure were transitioning from primary to secondary school. Results for the early childhood cohort, 18-20-year-old at endline, shows that differential exposure to Progresa during the early years led to positive impacts on educational attainment and labor income expectations. This constitutes unique long-term evidence on the returns of an at-scale intervention on investments in human capital during the first 1000 days of life. Results for the school cohort - in their early 30s at endline - show that the short-term impacts of differential exposure to Progresa on schooling were sustained in the long-run and manifested themselves in larger labor incomes, more geographical mobility including through international migration, and later family formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Araujo, María Caridad & Macours, Karen, 2021. "Education, Income and Mobility: Experimental Impacts of Childhood Exposure to Progresa after 20 Years," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 11787, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:11787
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003808
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Education-Income-and-Mobility-Experimental-Impacts-of-Childhood-Exposure-to-Progresa-after-20-Years.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003808?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vincenzo Caponi, 2011. "Intergenerational Transmission Of Abilities And Self‐Selection Of Mexican Immigrants," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 523-547, May.
    2. Esther Duflo & Pascaline Dupas & Michael Kremer, 2021. "The Impact of Free Secondary Education: Experimental Evidence from Ghana," NBER Working Papers 28937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bryan, Gharad & Morten, Melanie, 2019. "The aggregate productivity effects of internal migration: evidence from Indonesia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88177, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Douglas Almond & Janet Currie & Valentina Duque, 2018. "Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act II," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1360-1446, December.
    5. Lagakos, David & Marshall, Samuel & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq & Vernot, Corey & Waugh, Michael E., 2020. "Migration costs and observational returns to migration in the developing world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 138-154.
    6. Susan W Parker & Tom Vogl, 2023. "Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Economic Outcomes in the Next Generation? Evidence from Mexico," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(655), pages 2775-2806.
    7. repec:hal:journl:halshs-02297703 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kathleen Beegle & Joachim De Weerdt & Stefan Dercon, 2011. "Migration and Economic Mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from a Tracking Survey," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 1010-1033, August.
    9. David McKenzie & John Gibson & Steven Stillman, 2010. "How Important Is Selection? Experimental vs. Non-Experimental Measures of the Income Gains from Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 913-945, June.
    10. Tania Barham & Karen Macours & John A. Maluccio, 2013. "Boys' Cognitive Skill Formation and Physical Growth: Long-Term Experimental Evidence on Critical Ages for Early Childhood Interventions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 467-471, May.
    11. Shan Li, 2018. "Investment and interruption: effects of the US experience on the earnings of return migrants in Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 426-440, January.
    12. Tania Barham & Karen Macours & John A. Maluccio, 2013. "Boys' Cognitive Skill Formation and Physical Growth: Long-Term Experimental Evidence on Critical Ages for Early Childhood Interventions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 467-471, May.
    13. David Lagakos, 2020. "Urban-Rural Gaps in the Developing World: Does Internal Migration Offer Opportunities?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 174-192, Summer.
    14. Sarah Baird & Joan Hamory Hicks & Michael Kremer & Edward Miguel, 2016. "Worms at Work: Long-run Impacts of a Child Health Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1637-1680.
    15. Benjamin Davis & Guy Stecklov & Paul Winters, 2002. "Domestic and International Migration from Rural Mexico: Disaggregating the effects of network structure and composition," Working Papers 02-13, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    16. Paul Gertler & James J. Heckman & Rodrigo Pinto & Susan M. Chang & Sally Grantham-McGregor & Christel Vermeersch & Susan Walker & Amika Wright, 2021. "Effect of the Jamaica Early Childhood Stimulation Intervention on Labor Market Outcomes at Age 31," NBER Working Papers 29292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Gharad Bryan & Shyamal Chowdhury & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2014. "Underinvestment in a Profitable Technology: The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1671-1748, September.
    18. Christopher Blattman & Nathan Fiala & Sebastian Martinez, 2020. "The Long-Term Impacts of Grants on Poverty: Nine-Year Evidence from Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 287-304, September.
    19. Daniel Chiquiar & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 239-281, April.
    20. Mckenzie, David & Rapoport, Hillel, 2007. "Network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality: Theory and evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-24, September.
    21. Samuel Bazzi & Arya Gaduh & Alexander D. Rothenberg & Maisy Wong, 2016. "Skill Transferability, Migration, and Development: Evidence from Population Resettlement in Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2658-2698, September.
    22. M. Caridad Araujo & Mariano Bosch & Norbert Schady, 2017. "Can Cash Transfers Help Households Escape an Intergenerational Poverty Trap?," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Poverty Traps, pages 357-382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Guy Stecklov & Paul Winters & Marco Stampini & Benjamin Davis, 2005. "Do conditional cash transfers influence migration? A study using experimental data from the Mexican progresa program," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(4), pages 769-790, November.
    24. Paul J. Gertler & Sebastian W. Martinez & Marta Rubio-Codina, 2012. "Investing Cash Transfers to Raise Long-Term Living Standards," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 164-192, January.
    25. Paul Gertler, 2004. "Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child Health? Evidence from PROGRESA's Control Randomized Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 336-341, May.
    26. David McKenzie & Hillel Rapoport, 2010. "Self-Selection Patterns in Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Role of Migration Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 811-821, November.
    27. Manuela Angelucci, 2015. "Migration and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 224-228, March.
    28. Christopher Blattman & Nathan Fiala & Sebastian Martinez, 2018. "The Long Term Impacts of Grants on Poverty: 9-year Evidence From Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program," NBER Working Papers 24999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Paul Schultz, T., 2004. "School subsidies for the poor: evaluating the Mexican Progresa poverty program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 199-250, June.
    30. Molina Millán, Teresa & Macours, Karen & Maluccio, John A. & Tejerina, Luis, 2020. "Experimental long-term effects of early-childhood and school-age exposure to a conditional cash transfer program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    31. Nur Cahyadi & Rema Hanna & Benjamin A. Olken & Rizal Adi Prima & Elan Satriawan & Ekki Syamsulhakim, 2020. "Cumulative Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: Experimental Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 88-110, November.
    32. Jere R. Behrman & John Hoddinott, 2005. "Programme Evaluation with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Selective Implementation: The Mexican PROGRESA Impact on Child Nutrition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 547-569, August.
    33. Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter & Jean-Paul Chavas, 2018. "The Economics of Poverty Traps," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr-3.
    34. Blattman, Chris & Fiala, Nathan & Martinez, Sebastian, 2019. "The long term impacts of grants on poverty: 9-year evidence from Uganda’s Youth Opportunities Program," SocArXiv vctuh, Center for Open Science.
    35. Baird, Sarah & McIntosh, Craig & Özler, Berk, 2019. "When the money runs out: Do cash transfers have sustained effects on human capital accumulation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 169-185.
    36. Adriana D. Kugler & Ingrid Rojas, 2018. "Do CCTs Improve Employment and Earnings in the Very Long-Term? Evidence from Mexico," NBER Working Papers 24248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Macours, Karen & Barham, Tania & Maluccio, John, 2018. "Experimental Evidence of Exposure to a Conditional Cash Transfer During Early Teenage Years: Young Women’s Fertility and Labo," CEPR Discussion Papers 13165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. World Bank, 2018. "World Development Report 2018 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2018]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28340.
    39. Jere R. Behrman & Susan W. Parker & Petra E. Todd, 2011. "Do Conditional Cash Transfers for Schooling Generate Lasting Benefits?: A Five-Year Followup of PROGRESA/Oportunidades," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(1), pages 93-122.
    40. Attanasio, Orazio P. & Kaufmann, Katja M., 2014. "Education choices and returns to schooling: Mothers' and youths' subjective expectations and their role by gender," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 203-216.
    41. Barham, Tania, 2011. "A healthier start: The effect of conditional cash transfers on neonatal and infant mortality in rural Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 74-85, January.
    42. Susan W. Parker & Petra E. Todd, 2017. "Conditional Cash Transfers: The Case of Progresa/Oportunidades," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 866-915, September.
    43. Barrett, Christopher B. & Carter, Michael & Chavas, Jean-Paul & Carter, Michael R. (ed.), 2018. "The Economics of Poverty Traps," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226574301, August.
    44. Gharad Bryan & Melanie Morten, 2019. "The Aggregate Productivity Effects of Internal Migration: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2229-2268.
    45. David Lindstrom, 1996. "Economic opportunity in mexico and return migration from the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(3), pages 357-374, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Baird, Sarah & McIntosh, Craig & Özler, Berk & Pape, Utz, 2024. "Asset transfers and anti-poverty programs: Experimental evidence from Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Bryan, Gharad & Chowdhury, Shyamal & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq & Morten, Melanie & Smits, Joeri, 2023. "Encouragement and distortionary effects of conditional cash transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    3. Gazeaud, Jules & Ricard, Claire, 2024. "Learning effects of conditional cash transfers: The role of class size and composition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Clotilde Mahé & Philipp Hessel, 2022. "School-age exposure to conditional cash transfers and adult mental health: Evidence from Mexico’s Progresa," Documentos de trabajo 20155, Escuela de Gobierno - Universidad de los Andes.
    5. Oconnor, Christopher, 2024. "Do conditional cash transfers create resilience against poverty? Long-run evidence from Jamaica," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Molina Millán, Teresa & Macours, Karen & Maluccio, John A. & Tejerina, Luis, 2020. "Experimental long-term effects of early-childhood and school-age exposure to a conditional cash transfer program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Selod, Harris & Shilpi, Forhad, 2021. "Rural-urban migration in developing countries: Lessons from the literature," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Teresa Molina Millán & Tania Barham & Karen Macours & John A Maluccio & Marco Stampini, 2019. "Long-Term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers: Review of the Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 119-159.
    4. Zhou, Lei & Jiang, Bo & Wang, Jingxi, 2020. "Do cash transfers have impacts on student Academic, cognitive, and enrollment outcomes? Evidence from rural China," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Baird, Sarah & McIntosh, Craig & Özler, Berk, 2019. "When the money runs out: Do cash transfers have sustained effects on human capital accumulation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 169-185.
    6. Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2019. "Welfare and Redistributive Effects of Social Assistance in the Global South," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(S1), pages 3-22, December.
    7. Clotilde Mahé & Philipp Hessel, 2022. "School-age exposure to conditional cash transfers and adult mental health: Evidence from Mexico’s Progresa," Documentos de trabajo 20155, Escuela de Gobierno - Universidad de los Andes.
    8. Jules Gazeaud & Claire Ricard, 2021. "Conditional cash transfers and the learning crisis: evidence from Tayssir scale-up in Morocco," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2102, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    9. Achyuta Adhvaryu & Teresa Molina & Anant Nyshadham & Jorge Tamayo, 2024. "Helping Children Catch Up: Early Life Shocks and the PROGRESA Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 1-22.
    10. Parker, Susan, 2024. "Rolling Back Progresa: How the Sudden Ending of a Landmark Anti-Poverty Program Affected School and Labor," SocArXiv h9qmc, Center for Open Science.
    11. Qingen Gai & Naijia Guo & Bingjing Li & Qinghua Shi & Xiaodong Zhu, 2021. "Migration Costs, Sorting, and the Agricultural Productivity Gap," Working Papers tecipa-693, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    12. Tushar Bharati & Adnan M. S. Fakir & Wina Yoman, 2024. "Internal Migration and Labor Market Outcomes in Indonesia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(2), pages 997-1040.
    13. Parag Mahajan & Dean Yang, 2020. "Taken by Storm: Hurricanes, Migrant Networks, and US Immigration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 250-277, April.
    14. Armando Barrientos & Daniele Malerba, 2020. "Social assistance and inclusive growth," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 33-53, July.
    15. Katy Bergstrom & Berk Özler, 2023. "Improving the Well-Being of Adolescent Girls in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 38(2), pages 179-212.
    16. Cai, Shu, 2020. "Migration under liquidity constraints: Evidence from randomized credit access in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    17. Marta Schoch, 2020. "Essays on political economy, inequality and development," Economics PhD Theses 0120, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    18. M. Caridad Araujo & Mariano Bosch & Norbert Schady, 2017. "Can Cash Transfers Help Households Escape an Intergenerational Poverty Trap?," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Poverty Traps, pages 357-382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Luis Laguinge & Leonardo Gasparini & Guido Neidhöfer, 2024. "The Long-Run Effects of Conditional Cash Transfers: the Case of Bolsa Familia in Brazil," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0328, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    20. David McKenzie, 2024. "Fears and Tears: Should More People Be Moving within and from Developing Countries, and What Stops this Movement?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(1), pages 75-96.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional cash transfers; Long term impacts; Schooling; Mexico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • N76 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:11787. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Felipe Herrera Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iadbbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.