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Local currency bond market development in Sub-Saharan Africa: a stock-taking exercise and analysis of key drivers

Author

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  • Essers, Dennis
  • Blommestein, Hans
  • Cassimon, Danny
  • Ibarlucea Flores, Perla
Abstract
This paper studies the current state and drivers of the development of government local currency bond markets (LCBMs) in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region whose progress in developing such markets has only recently received attention in the literature. We argue that well-developed LCBMs could reduce countries’ exposure to external shocks; help wash away or reduce ‘original sin’; facilitate the mobilisation of domestic savings; and may have important financial, macroeconomic and institutional spill-over effects. With detailed information collected from various sources the paper first shows that quite a number of African countries have made significant strides in this area. Increasingly, governments in the region issue fixed-rate local currency bonds with tenors of ten years and more on a regular basis. This does not imply all is well. We find that LCBMs in Africa often have low liquidity, feature very few corporate securities and generally have relatively narrow investor bases dominated by commercial banks. The second part of the study presents new results on the drivers of LCBMs based on an econometric analysis of new panel data collected by the OECD. Our results indicate that LCBM capitalisation in selected African countries is negatively correlated with governments’ fiscal balance and relatively high inflation, and positively related to common law legal origins, better institutional quality and strong democratic political systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Essers, Dennis & Blommestein, Hans & Cassimon, Danny & Ibarlucea Flores, Perla, 2014. "Local currency bond market development in Sub-Saharan Africa: a stock-taking exercise and analysis of key drivers," IOB Working Papers 2014.08, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    • Handle: RePEc:iob:wpaper:201408
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    Cited by:

    1. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2015. "What to do after the clean slate? Post-relief public debt sustainability and management," BeFinD Working Papers 0103, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
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    3. Amr Hosny, 2020. "Nonresident holdings of domestic debt in Nigeria: Internal or external driven?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 472-485, September.
    4. SENGA, Christian, 2018. "Portfolio optimization at the frontier: Assessing the diversification benefits of African securities," Working Papers 2019001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    5. Christian Senga & Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers, 2018. "Sub-Saharan African Eurobond yields: What really matters beyond global factors?," Review of Development Finance Journal, Chartered Institute of Development Finance, vol. 8(1), pages 49-62.
    6. Pedersoli, Silvia & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2023. "Public debt management and private financial development," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    7. Roel Dom & Lionel Roger, 2018. "Economic sanctions and domestic debt: Burundi's fiscal response to the suspension of budget support," Discussion Papers 2018-12, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    8. Olfa Berrich & Halim Dabbou & Mohamed Imen Gallali, 2022. "Over-the-counter market and corporate bond market development," International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 47(2/3), pages 284-304.
    9. Yongkil Ahn & Yoshikatsu Shinozawa & Kazuo Yamada, 2022. "Corporate Debt Mix and Long-term Firm Growth in Japan," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(8), pages 2139-2152, June.
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    13. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2016. "Bond Markets Initiation and Tax Revenue Mobilization in Developing Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 550-572, October.
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    16. Christian Senga & Danny Cassimon, 2019. "African Eurobonds: why we should (not) worry!," BeFinD Policy Briefs 8, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
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    18. Jamel Boukhatem, 2021. "What drives local currency bond market development in Saudi Arabia: do macroeconomic and institutional factors matter?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    19. Kathrin Berensmann & Florence Dafe & Ulrich Volz, 2015. "Developing local currency bond markets for long-term development financing in Sub-Saharan Africa," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 31(3-4), pages 350-378.
    20. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2021. "Bond return predictability: Evidence from 25 OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; local currency bonds; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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