[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/inn/wpaper/2017-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling under-5 mortality through multilevel structured additive regression with varying coefficients for Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth Harttgen
  • Stefan Lang
  • Judith Santer
  • Johannes Seiler
Abstract
Despite improvements in global child health within the last three decades, under-5 mortality remains significantly high in Sub-Saharan and Asia. Both regions did not achieve the MDG target of reducing under-5 mortality by two thirds by 2015. The underlying causes of under-5 mortality differ significantly between countries and between regions, which highlights the need to expand our understanding of the determinants of child health in developing countries. By comparing the two geographic regions of the world with the highest under-5 mortality rates, we aim to gain new insights, and bring out potential differences between these regions and the causes of under-5 mortality. In addition, we aim to identify non-linear relationships between under-5 mortality and specific explanatory variables. We analyze a large data set consisting of 35 Sub-Saharan-African countries, and 13 Asian countries, using a multilevel discrete time survival model that takes advantage of a recently developed multilevel framework with structured additive predictor in a Bayesian setting. We analyze data from 131 individual surveys from 1992 to 2015, allowing for potential non-linear effects and cluster specific heterogeneity within models. We find strong non-linear effects for the baseline hazard, the household size, the age of the mother, the BMI of the mother, and the birth order of the child. Additionally, we find considerable differences in determinants between Asian and Sub-Saharan Asian countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Harttgen & Stefan Lang & Judith Santer & Johannes Seiler, 2017. "Modeling under-5 mortality through multilevel structured additive regression with varying coefficients for Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2017-15, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    • Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2017-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www2.uibk.ac.at/downloads/c4041030/wpaper/2017-15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    2. Cleland, John G. & van Ginneken, Jerome K., 1988. "Maternal education and child survival in developing countries: The search for pathways of influence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 27(12), pages 1357-1368, January.
    3. Dawit G. Ayele & Temesgen T. Zewotir, 2016. "Childhood mortality spatial distribution in Ethiopia," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 2813-2828, November.
    4. Lang, Stefan & Sunder, Marco, 2003. "Non-parametric regression with BayesX: a flexible estimation of trends in human physical stature in 19th century America," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 77-89, January.
    5. Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala & Gebrenegus Ghilagaber, 2006. "A Geo-Additive Bayesian Discrete-Time Survival Model and its Application to Spatial Analysis of Childhood Mortality in Malawi," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 40(6), pages 935-957, December.
    6. Jamison, Dean T. & Murphy, Shane M. & Sandbu, Martin E., 2016. "Why has under-5 mortality decreased at such different rates in different countries?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 16-25.
    7. Umlauf, Nikolaus & Adler, Daniel & Kneib, Thomas & Lang, Stefan & Zeileis, Achim, 2015. "Structured Additive Regression Models: An R Interface to BayesX," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 63(i21).
    8. Wang, Limin, 2003. "Determinants of child mortality in LDCs: Empirical findings from demographic and health surveys," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 277-299, September.
    9. repec:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2017.303657_2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. David E. Sahn & David Stifel, 2003. "Exploring Alternative Measures of Welfare in the Absence of Expenditure Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 49(4), pages 463-489, December.
    11. Brezger, Andreas & Kneib, Thomas & Lang, Stefan, 2005. "BayesX: Analyzing Bayesian Structural Additive Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 14(i11).
    12. Kenneth Harttgen & Stefan Lang & Judith Santer, 2015. "Multilevel Modelling of Child Mortality in Africa," Working Papers 2015-03, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    13. Alderman, Harold & Lokshin, Michael & Radyakin, Sergiy, 2011. "Tall claims : mortality selection and the height of children," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5846, The World Bank.
    14. Alderman, Harold & Lokshin, Michael & Radyakin, Sergiy, 2011. "Tall claims: Mortality selection and the height of children in India," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 393-406.
    15. Kenneth Harttgen & Mark Misselhorn, 2006. "A Multilevel Approach to Explain Child Mortality and Undernutrition in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 152, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Krivobokova, Tatyana & Kneib, Thomas & Claeskens, Gerda, 2010. "Simultaneous Confidence Bands for Penalized Spline Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 852-863.
    17. Lang, Stefan & Steiner, Winfried J. & Weber, Anett & Wechselberger, Peter, 2015. "Accommodating heterogeneity and nonlinearity in price effects for predicting brand sales and profits," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(1), pages 232-241.
    18. Helene Roth & Stefan Lang & Helga Wagner, 2015. "Random intercept selection in structured additive regression models," Working Papers 2015-02, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    19. Sonalde Desai & Soumya Alva, 1998. "Maternal education and child health: Is there a strong causal relationship?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(1), pages 71-81, February.
    20. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Linde, 2014. "The deviance information criterion: 12 years on," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 76(3), pages 485-493, June.
    21. Stefan Lang & Nikolaus Umlauf & Peter Wechselberger & Kenneth Harttgen & Thomas Kneib, 2012. "Multilevel structured additive regression," Working Papers 2012-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    22. Fink, G. & Victora, C.G. & Harttgen, K. & Vollmer, S. & Vidaletti, L.P. & Barros, A.J.D., 2017. "Measuring Socioeconomic Inequalities with Predicted Absolute Incomes Rather Than Wealth Quintiles: A Comparative Assessment Using Child Stunting Data from National Surveys," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 107(4), pages 550-555.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth Harttgen & Stefan Lang & Johannes Seiler, 2017. "Selective mortality and undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries," Working Papers 2017-27, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, revised Aug 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harttgen, Kenneth & Lang, Stefan & Seiler, Johannes, 2019. "Selective mortality and the anthropometric status of children in low- and middle-income countries," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 257-273.
    2. Seiler, Johannes & Harttgen, Kenneth & Kneib, Thomas & Lang, Stefan, 2021. "Modelling children's anthropometric status using Bayesian distributional regression merging socio-economic and remote sensed data from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    3. Kenneth Harttgen & Stefan Lang & Johannes Seiler, 2017. "Selective mortality and undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries," Working Papers 2017-27, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck, revised Aug 2018.
    4. Headey, Derek D. & Hoddinott, John F., 2014. "Understanding the rapid reduction of undernutrition in Nepal, 2001-2011:," IFPRI discussion papers 1384, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Quamruzzaman, Amm & Mendoza Rodríguez, José M. & Heymann, Jody & Kaufman, Jay S. & Nandi, Arijit, 2014. "Are tuition-free primary education policies associated with lower infant and neonatal mortality in low- and middle-income countries?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 153-159.
    6. Guhl, Daniel & Baumgartner, Bernhard & Kneib, Thomas & Steiner, Winfried J., 2018. "Estimating time-varying parameters in brand choice models: A semiparametric approach," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 394-414.
    7. Caitlin S. Brown & Martin Ravallion & Dominique van de Walle, 2017. "Are Poor Individuals Mainly Found in Poor Households? Evidence using Nutrition Data for Africa," NBER Working Papers 24047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kenneth Harttgen & Stefan Lang & Judith Santer, 2015. "Multilevel Modelling of Child Mortality in Africa," Working Papers 2015-03, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    9. Schmidt, Paul & Mühlau, Mark & Schmid, Volker, 2017. "Fitting large-scale structured additive regression models using Krylov subspace methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 59-75.
    10. Okechukwu D. Anyamele & Benedict N. Akanegbu & Jean-Claude Assadand John O. Ukawuilulu, 2017. "Differentials in Infant and Child Mortality in Nigeria: Evidence from Pooled 2003 and 2008 DHS Data," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(6), pages 1-5.
    11. Derek Headey & David Stifel & Liangzhi You & Zhe Guo, 2018. "Remoteness, urbanization, and child nutrition in sub‐Saharan Africa," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(6), pages 765-775, November.
    12. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clarke, Damian & Mühlrad, Hanna & Palme, Mårten, 2021. "Health and Labor Market Impacts of Twin Birth : Evidence from a Swedish IVF Policy Mandate," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1391, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    13. Brown, Paul T. & Joshi, Chaitanya & Joe, Stephen & Rue, Håvard, 2021. "A novel method of marginalisation using low discrepancy sequences for integrated nested Laplace approximations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    14. repec:ilo:ilowps:361745 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bernhard Baumgartner & Daniel Guhl & Thomas Kneib & Winfried J. Steiner, 2018. "Flexible estimation of time-varying effects for frequently purchased retail goods: a modeling approach based on household panel data," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 40(4), pages 837-873, October.
    16. Mary Oluwatoyin AGBOOLA, 2017. "Impact of food availability on child mortality: a cross country comparative analysis," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(6), pages 283-297.
    17. Sunde, Uwe & Cervellati, Matteo, 2007. "Human Capital, Mortality and Fertility: A Unified Theory of the Economic and Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Marta Jankowska & Magdalena Benza & John Weeks, 2013. "Estimating spatial inequalities of urban child mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(2), pages 33-62.
    19. Stephen Hall & Janine Illian & Innocent Makuta & Kyle McNabb & Stuart Murray & Bernadette AM O’Hare & Andre Python & Syed Haider Ali Zaidi & Naor Bar-Zeev, 2021. "Government Revenue and Child and Maternal Mortality," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 213-229, February.
    20. Pradeep Kumar Choudhury, 2015. "Explaining the Role of Parental Education in the Regional Variations in Infant Mortality in India," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 544-572, September.
    21. Jamie Roberman & Theophilus I. Emeto & Oyelola A. Adegboye, 2021. "Adverse Birth Outcomes Due to Exposure to Household Air Pollution from Unclean Cooking Fuel among Women of Reproductive Age in Nigeria," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-15, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Child mortality; Asia; Sub-Sahara Africa; multilevel STAR models; Bayesian inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z1 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics
    • A13 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Social Values
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J43 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Agricultural Labor Markets
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2017-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Janette Walde (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fuibkat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.