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Credit vs. demand constraints: the determinants of US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011

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  • Christian Schoder
Abstract
The paper studies empirically how relative supply and demand conditions on the capital market affected US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011. A dynamic econometric specification of capital accumulation including sales growth, Tobin's q, the cash flow-capital ratio and the cost of capital as covariates is fitted by a rolling window System GMM estimator using quarterly data on publicly traded US corporations in order to obtain time-varying coefficients. We find that the investment effects of the variables capturing the demand-side of the capital market, i.e. sales growth and Tobin's q, behave counter-cyclically, whereas this does not hold for the investment effects of supply-side variables such as cash flow or the cost of capital. Our results suggest that investment was typically driven by adverse demand rather than supply conditions on the capital market during the most severe recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Schoder, 2013. "Credit vs. demand constraints: the determinants of US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011," IMK Working Paper 106-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:106-2013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Laura Jaramillo & Carlos Mulas†Granados & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Debt spikes, blind spots, and financial stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 421-437, October.
    3. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
    4. Kai Chang & Ning Lu & Ze Sheng Li & Yi Ran Wang, 2021. "The combined impacts of fiscal and credit policies on green firm's investment opportunity: Evidences from Chinese firm‐level analysis," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1822-1835, October.
    5. Beladi, Hamid & Chao, Chi Chur & Hu, May, 2016. "A macro-analysis of financial decisions: An examination of special dividend announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 162-181.
    6. Musgrave, Ralph S., 2014. "The Solution is Full Reserve / 100% Reserve Banking," MPRA Paper 57955, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zabavnik, Darja & Verbič, Miroslav, 2023. "The effects of financial frictions on Slovenian companies: A panel VAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    8. Schoder, Christian, 2014. "Instability, stationary utilization and effective demand: A structuralist model of endogenous cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 10-29.
    9. Iorio, Francesca Di & Fachin, Stefano, 2014. "Savings and investments in the OECD, 1970–2007: A test of panel cointegration with regime changes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 59-76.
    10. Islam, Silvia Z. & Khandaker, Sarod, 2015. "Firm leverage decisions: Does industry matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 94-107.
    11. Betül Mutlugün, 2022. "Endogenous income distribution and aggregate demand: Empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregression," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 583-637, May.
    12. Heili Hein & Kadri Männasoo, 2017. "Are business obstacles different for R&D companies?," TUT Economic Research Series 33, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    13. D'Elia, Enrico & Morettini, Lucio, 2014. "Business investment during the global crisis: some evidence from the Italian experience," MPRA Paper 61511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ghada Tayem, 2022. "Credit Constraints and Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity in Declining Economic Conditions: The Role of Reliance on Bank Debt," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-15, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; credit constraints; business cycles; panel estimation; System GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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