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Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. John C Bluedorn
  • Mr. Jörg Decressin
  • Mr. Marco Terrones
Abstract
This paper examines the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries. It finds that asset price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. In particular, the marginal effect of an equity/house price drop on the likelihood of a new recession can be substantial. Equity price drops are, however, larger and are more frequent than house price drops, making them on average more helpful as recession predictors. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the term-spread, uncertainty, and oil prices. Lastly, there is no evidence of significant bias resulting from the rarity of recession starts.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Marco Terrones, 2013. "Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?," IMF Working Papers 2013/203, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Yulian Zhang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Forecasting Crude Oil Market Crashes Using Machine Learning Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-14, May.
    4. Kazutaka Kurasawa, 2017. "Forecasting US recession with the economic policy uncertainty indexes of policy categories," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 100-109.
    5. Bluedorn, John C. & Decressin, Jörg & Terrones, Marco E., 2016. "Do asset price drops foreshadow recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 518-526.
    6. Ujjal Chatterjee, 2023. "Predicting economic growth: evidence from real-estate loans securitization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    9. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    10. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Wheatcroft, Edward, 2019. "Interpreting the skill score form of forecast performance metrics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 573-579.
    12. Chatterjee, Ujjal K. & Zirgulis, Aras & Hüttinger, Maik & French, Joseph J., 2024. "Reassessing the inversion of the Treasury yield curve as a sign of U.S. recessions: Insights from the housing and credit markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2017. "Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 745-759.

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