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Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries: Lessons From theglobal Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
  • Hans Weisfeld
  • Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
  • Mr. Martin Schindler
  • Mr. Nikola Spatafora
  • Mr. Andrew Berg
Abstract
This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the growth declines are on average well explained by the decline in export demand. Third, if the external environment facing LICs improves as forecast, their growth should rebound sharply. Finally, and contrary to received wisdom, there are few robust relationships between the cross-country growth variation and the policy and structural environment; the main exceptions are reserve coverage and labor-market flexibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Hans Weisfeld & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Martin Schindler & Mr. Nikola Spatafora & Mr. Andrew Berg, 2011. "Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries: Lessons From theglobal Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/027, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Hallerberg, Mark & Scartascini, Carlos, 2017. "Explaining changes in tax burdens in Latin America: Do politics trump economics?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 162-179.
    3. Pietro Alessandrini & Andrea Presbitero, 2012. "Low-Income Countries and an SDR-based International Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 129-150, February.
    4. Pietro Alessandrini & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2011. "Low-Income Countries Vulnerabilities and the Need for an SDR-Based International Monetary System," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 55, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    5. Era Dabla-Norris & Raphael Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2015. "Spillovers to low-income countries: importance of systemic emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(53), pages 5707-5725, November.
    6. Giulia Bettin & Andrea F. Presbitero & Nikola L. Spatafora, 2017. "Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23.
    7. Samuel Bates & Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye, 2014. "Economic Growth from a Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 951-965.
    8. B. Bakhtyar, 2017. "Universal Financial Crisis and Association of Southeast Asian Nations CO2 Emission," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 137-141.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "International Reserves in Low Income Countries: Have they Served As Buffers?," IMF Working Papers 2012/007, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Edward, Batte Sennoga & John Mary, Matovu, 2016. "Growth and Welfare Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks in Uganda," Occasional Papers 244096, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    11. Nina Biljanovska & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2016. "Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/102, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mark Hallerberg & Carlos Scartascini, 2015. "Explaining Changes in Tax Burdens in Latin America: Does Politics Trump Economics?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 90997, Inter-American Development Bank.

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