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Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account

Author

Listed:
  • Mai Dao
  • Callum Jones
Abstract
Building on the evolving literature on the topic, this paper reviews the relationship between demographics and long-run capital flows in both theory and in the data. For this purpose, we develop a two region overlapping generations model where countries differ in their population growth and mortality risk. Besides exploring the implications of demographics for saving and the current account over the long-run, we also study how these might be affected by differences in the coverage and sustainability of old-age transfer schemes. The model predicts that population structure and life expectancy (which affects the need to save to meet old age consumption) affect current account levels, and that while countries with more generous unfunded transfer schemes tend to have lower saving and more capital inflows over the long-run, this effect may be dampened by natural limits (on taxation) of these schemes. The key predictions of the model are generally supported by a rich panel dataset.

Suggested Citation

  • Mai Dao & Callum Jones, 2018. "Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2018/264, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/264
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=46386
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Mr. Cian Allen & Camila Casas & Mr. Giovanni Ganelli & Luciana Juvenal & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Cyril Rebillard & Jair Rodriguez & João Tovar Jalles, 2023. "2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology," IMF Working Papers 2023/047, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Signe Krogstrup & Gustavo Adler & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mai Dao & Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan & Luciana Juvenal & Ms. Carolina Osorio-Buitron & Cyril Rebillard & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia &, 2019. "The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update," IMF Working Papers 2019/065, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Galstyan, Vahagn, 2019. "Understanding the Euro Area Current Account," Economic Letters 7/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Valerio Della Corte & Claire Giordano, 2021. "Methodological issues in the estimation of current account imbalances," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 617, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrión-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2024. "Current account determinants in a globalized world," Working Papers 2410, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.

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