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Identifying Speculative Bubbles: A Two-Pillar Surveillance Framework

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  • Bradley Jones
Abstract
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the issue of how best to identify speculative asset bubbles (in real-time) remains in flux. This owes to the difficulty of disentangling irrational investor exuberance from the rational response to lower risk based on price behavior alone. In response, I introduce a two-pillar (price and quantity) approach for financial market surveillance. The intuition is straightforward: while asset pricing models comprise a valuable component of the surveillance toolkit, risk taking behavior, and financial vulnerabilities more generally, can also be reflected in subtler, non-price terms. The framework appears to capture stylized facts of asset booms and busts—some of the largest in history have been associated with below average risk premia (captured by the ‘pricing pillar’) and unusually elevated patterns of issuance, trading volumes, fund flows, and survey-based return projections (reflected in the ‘quantities pillar’). Based on a comparison to past boom-bust episodes, the approach is signaling mounting vulnerabilities in risky U.S. credit markets. Policy makers and regulators should be attune to any further deterioration in issuance quality, and where possible, take steps to ensure the post-crisis financial infrastructure is braced to accommodate a re-pricing in credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Bradley Jones, 2014. "Identifying Speculative Bubbles: A Two-Pillar Surveillance Framework," IMF Working Papers 2014/208, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/208
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    3. Tsangyao Chang & Luis Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Omid Ranjbar, 2016. "Testing for bubbles in the BRICS stock markets," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(4), pages 646-660, September.
    4. Andr Tomfort, 2017. "Detecting Asset Price Bubbles: A Multifactor Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 46-55.
    5. Eric Fischer, 2020. "Monetary Surprises and Global Financial Flows: A Case Study of Latin America," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(2), pages 189-225, August.
    6. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.

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