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“Rules of Thumb” for Sovereign Debt Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Nouriel Roubini
  • Paolo Manasse
Abstract
This paper contains an empirical investigation of the set of economic and political conditions that are associated with a likely occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Binary Recursive Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help identify the typical characteristics of defaulters. We find that not all crises are equal: they differ depending on whether the government faces insolvency, illiquidity, or various macroeconomic risks. We also characterize the set of fundamentals that can be associated with a relatively "risk free" zone. This classification is important for discussing appropriate policy options to prevent crises and improve response time and prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2005. "“Rules of Thumb” for Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2005/042, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/042
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; debt crisis; crisis episode; crisis probability; debt path; risk type;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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