[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfscr/2014-286.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sri Lanka: Selected Issues

Author

Listed:
  • International Monetary Fund
Abstract
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The first chapter on monetary policy transmission examines the channels through which innovations to policy variables—policy rate or monetary aggregates—affect such macroeconomic variables as output and inflation in Sri Lanka. The effectiveness of monetary policy instruments is judged through the prism of conventional policy channels (money/interest rate, bank lending, exchange rate, asset price channels) in VAR models, and the timing and magnitude of these effects are assessed using impulse response functions, and through the pass-through coefficients from policy to money market and lending rates. Our results show that (i) interest rate channel (money view) has the strongest Granger effect on output with 0.6 percent decrease in output after the second quarter and a cumulative 0.5 percent decline within a 3 year period in response to innovations in the policy rate; (ii) the contribution from the bank lending channel is statistically significant (adding another 0.2 percentage points to the baseline effect of policy rates) in affecting both output and prices but with a lag of about 5 quarters for output and longer for prices; (iii) the exchange rate and asset price channels are ineffective and do not have Granger effects on either output or prices. The second chapter takes a fresh look at the public debt reduction strategy. It asks two questions: (i) what has been driving the increase and subsequent decline in Sri Lanka’s public debt? (ii) Is Sri Lanka’s public debt too high, and if yes, how much, how fast and how should it be reduced? The chapter finds that, until recently, favorable interest rate-growth differential reflecting the combination of relatively high real GDP growth and low real interest rates on public debt has worked to reduce the debt ratio, even as primary deficits and occasional currency depreciation pushed the ratio in the opposite direction. More recently, however, the average borrowing costs began to increase, reflecting the reduced role of concessional financing and increased resort to market borrowing. Thus, debt reduction became more dependent on real growth and stronger primary balance, and this trend is likely to continue. The chapter documents that Sri Lanka’s public debt is one of the highest among the emerging economies, particularly when measured against the relatively low revenues, and suggests that the authorities target its gradual reduction to 50 percent of GDP, relying mainly on revenue measures. This target is more ambitious than the authorities’ medium-term objective of reducing the debt ratio to 60 percent of GDP, but it is considered by staff as prudent.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Sri Lanka: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/286, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2014/286
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41928
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    2. Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Mr. Michael Kell, 2003. "Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/002, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    4. Mr. Mark A Horton & Mr. George C. Tsibouris & Wojciech Maliszewski & Mr. Mark J Flanagan, 2006. "Experience with Large Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Occasional Papers 2006/003, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Gabriel Di Bella, 2008. "A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2008/058, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Steven Pennings & Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz, 2013. "Fiscal Consolidations and Growth: Does Speed Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2013/230, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    8. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2005. "Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/006, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    10. Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Damiano Sandri & John Simon, 2014. "Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?," IMF Working Papers 2014/034, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2013. "Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies," IMF Working Papers 2013/238, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2010/002, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mr. Nigel A Chalk & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 2000/081, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Petia Topalova & Dan Nyberg, 2010. "What Level of Public Debt Could India Target?," IMF Working Papers 2010/007, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 10/02, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan Priewe, 2020. "Why 60 and 3 percent? European debt and deficit rules - critique and alternatives," IMK Studies 66-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Ali A. Massoud, 2015. "Dealing with the Increasing Public Debt in Egypt," International Journal of Social Science Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 17-29, January.
    3. Séverine MENGUY, 2019. "Does public indebtedness constrain or can it favor economic growth? A simple analytical modeling," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 1-29.
    4. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    5. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Araceli Rodríguez-López, 2015. "What happens to the relationship between public debt and economic growth in European countries?," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 151-160.
    6. Yun Jung Kim & Jing Zhang, 2021. "The Relationship Between Debt and Output," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 230-257, March.
    7. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "The ‘other half’ of the public debt–economic growth relationship: a note on Reinhart and Rogoff," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 20-28, April.
    8. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    10. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    11. Mika, Alina & Zumer, Tina, 2017. "Indebtedness in the EU: a drag or a catalyst for growth?," Working Paper Series 2118, European Central Bank.
    12. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    13. Markus Ahlborn & Rainer Schweickert, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 373-403, April.
    14. Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe & Lode Vereeck & Johan Vanovertveldt, 2015. "Does debt predict growth? An empirical analysis of the relationship between total debt and economic output," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 4(2), pages 79-103, December.
    15. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2015. "Creşterea economică a României între 1980 şi 2013 [The Economic Growth of Romania between 1980 and 2013]," MPRA Paper 61592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Blessy Augustine & O.P.C. Muhammed Rafi, 2021. "Public Debt - Economic Growth: Evidence of a Non-linear Relationship," BASE University Working Papers 11/2021, BASE University, Bengaluru, India.
    17. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova, 2015. "Working Paper 227 - Public Debt Sustainability in Africa: Building Resilience and Challenges Ahead," Working Paper Series 2170, African Development Bank.
    18. Ntita Ntita, Jean Christophe & Kazadi Ntita, Franck & Ntanga Ntita, Jean de Dieu, 2020. "Analyse de la non-linéarité entre la dette publique extérieure et croissance économique dans les pays de la Communauté des Économique États de l’Afrique Centrale « CEEAC » [Analysis of the non-line," MPRA Paper 100652, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2020.
    19. Shahrzad Ghourchian & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2020. "Government consumption, government debt and economic growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 589-605, May.
    20. Vasileios Spyrakis & Stelios Kotsios, 2021. "Public debt dynamics: the interaction with national income and fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2014/286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.