[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hit/hitcei/2005-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Signaling Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions and Expectation Heterogeneity among Traders

Author

Listed:
  • Iwatsubo, Kentaro
  • 岩壷, 健太郎
  • イワツボ, ケンタロウ
  • Shimizu, Junko
  • 清水, 順子
  • シミズ, ジュンコ
Abstract
This paper explores whether official intervention signaling effects on short-run exchange rate movements depend on market conditions. We find evidence that announced interventions significantly affect the level and reduce the volatility of the yen/dollar rate when traders' expectations of future exchange rates are relatively heterogeneous. To compensate for the lack of daily exchange rate expectation survey data, we use implied volatility as a proxy since these are highly correlated. These results are consistent with predictions from the market microstructure models with asymmetric information across agents and the signaling hypothesis of foreign exchange interventions. Our findings indicate that the efficacy of intervention hinges not only on the firmness of signals but also on the degree of expectation heterogeneity among traders.

Suggested Citation

  • Iwatsubo, Kentaro & 岩壷, 健太郎 & イワツボ, ケンタロウ & Shimizu, Junko & 清水, 順子 & シミズ, ジュンコ, 2006. "Signaling Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions and Expectation Heterogeneity among Traders," CEI Working Paper Series 2005-18, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hitcei:2005-18
    Note: First draft: August 18, 2004; This version: October 27, 2005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/13502/wp2005-18a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fatum, Rasmus & Scholnick, Barry, 2008. "Monetary policy news and exchange rate responses: Do only surprises matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1076-1086, June.
    2. Maxime Charlebois & Stephen Sapp, 2007. "Temporal Patterns in Foreign Exchange Returns and Options," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 443-470, March.
    3. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & MacDonald, Ronald, 2007. "The impact of central bank intervention on exchange-rate forecast heterogeneity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 38-63, March.
    4. Capraro Rodríguez Santiago & Perrotini Hernández Ignacio, 2012. "Intervenciones cambiarias esterilizadas, teoría y evidencia:el caso de México," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 57(2), pages 11-44, abril-jun.
    5. Gabriele Galati & Patrick Higgins & Owen Humpage & William Melick, 2007. "Option prices, exchange market intervention, and the higher moment expectations channel: a user's guide," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 225-247.
    6. Becksndale Masawi & Sukanto Bhattacharya & Terry Boulter, 2018. "Does the Information Content of Central Bank Speeches Impact on the Level of Exchange Rate? A Comparative Study of Canadian and Australian Central Bank Communications," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(01), pages 1-27, March.
    7. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Stefan Reitz & Mark Taylor, 2012. "FX intervention in the Yen-US dollar market: a coordination channel perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 111-128, June.
    9. repec:bla:intfin:v:6:y:2003:i:2:p:249-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers (Old Series) 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Michael R. King, 2003. "Effective Foreign Exchange Intervention: Matching Strategies with Objectives," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 249-271, July.
    12. Maxime Charlebois & Stephen Sapp, 2007. "Temporal Patterns in Foreign Exchange Returns and Options," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 443-470, March.
    13. Hillebrand, Eric & Schnabl, Gunther & Ulu, Yasemin, 2009. "Japanese foreign exchange intervention and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate: A simultaneous equations approach using realized volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 490-505, July.
    14. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62045, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets – Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1349-1363.
    16. Joshua Schwartzstein & Adi Sunderam, 2021. "Using Models to Persuade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 276-323, January.
    17. Daniel Buncic, 2012. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 399-426, August.
    18. Chen Yu-Fu & Funke Michael & Glanemann Nicole, 2013. "Off-the-record target zones: theory with an application to Hong Kong’s currency board," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 373-393, September.
    19. Kal, Süleyman Hilmi & Arslaner, Ferhat & Arslaner, Nuran, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 592-607.
    20. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Font-Ferrer, Alejandro & Sorrosal-Forradellas, M. Teresa & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2019. "An information theory perspective on the informational efficiency of gold price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    21. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sébastien & Palm, Franz C., 2009. "Central bank FOREX interventions assessed using realized moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 112-127, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange intervention; Announcements; Expectation heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:hitcei:2005-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reiko Suzuki (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cehitjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.