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Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model

Author

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  • Söderström, Ulf

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract
I revisit the potential costs and benefits for Sweden of joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) of the European Union. I first show that the Swedish business cycle since the mid-1990s has been closely correlated with the Euro area economies, suggesting that common shocks have been an important driving force of business cycles in Europe. However, evidence from an estimated model of the Swedish economy instead suggests that country specific shocks have been important for fluctuations in the Swedish economy since 1993, implying that EMU membership could be costly. The model also indicates that the exchange rate has to a large extent acted to destabilize, rather than stabilize, the Swedish economy, pointing to the costs of independent monetary policy with a flexible exchange rate. Finally, counterfactual simulations of the model suggest that Swedish in inflation and GDP growth might have been slightly higher if Sweden had been a member of EMU since the launch in 1999, but also that GDP growth might have been more volatile. The evidence is therefore not conclusive about whether or not participation in the monetary union would be advantageous for Sweden.

Suggested Citation

  • Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Working Paper Series 227, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0227
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    Citations

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    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alesina, Alberto & Stella, Andrea, 2010. "The Politics of Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 18, pages 1001-1054, Elsevier.
    2. Emilia Gyoerk, 2017. "Economic Costs and Benefits of EMU Membership from the Perspective of a Non-member," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 893-921, November.
    3. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Refet S Güürkaynak & Eric T Swanson, 2011. "Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 350-364, February.
    4. Krause Montalbert, Stefan, 2016. "Better off without the euro? Evaluating monetary policy and macroeconomic performance for the u.k. and sweden," Revista de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Costa Rica, vol. 34(2), July.
    5. BELAŞCU Lucian, 2016. "The Case of “EMU-Outsiders”: Economic and Political Considerations," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
    6. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Economics Series Working Papers 442, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Makarski, Krzysztof & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2014. "Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-79.
    8. Amisano, Gianni & Giammarioli, Nicola & Stracca, Livio, 2009. "EMU and the adjustment to asymmetric shocks: the case of Italy," Working Paper Series 1128, European Central Bank.
    9. Slawomir Czech, 2015. "The Political Economy Of Staying Outside The Eurozone: Poland And Sweden Compared," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 23-43, September.
    10. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2010. "Euro Membership as a U.K. Monetary Policy Option: Results from a Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 415-439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Carlo A. Favero, 2010. "Comment on "Euro Membership as a U.K. Monetary Policy Option: Results from a Structural Model"," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 440-445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary union; Open economy; Optimum Currency Area; DSGE model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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