[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/ratioi/0099.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Dynamic Flexible Partial-Adjustment Model of International Diffusion of the Internet

Author

Listed:
Abstract
The paper introduces a dynamic, flexible partial-adjustment model and uses it to analyze the diffusion of Internet connectivity. It specifies and estimates desired levels of Internet diffusion and the speed at which countries achieve the target levels. The target levels and speed of adjustment are both country and time specific. Factors affecting Internet diffusion across countries are identified, and, using nonlinear least squares, the Gompertz growth model is generalized and estimated using data on Internet users for 59 countries observed over the years 1995 to 2002. The empirical results show that infrastructure variables such as personal computer ownership and telephone service increase the equilibrium level of internet diffusion. The speed of adjustment toward a target level decreases over time. Regarding model performance, the generalized dynamic Gompertz model that accounts for unobserved country heterogeneity effects outperforms other, simpler and static model specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Minkyu & Heshmati, Almas, 2006. "A Dynamic Flexible Partial-Adjustment Model of International Diffusion of the Internet," Ratio Working Papers 99, The Ratio Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0099
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ratio.se/pdf/wp/ah_internet.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harald Edquist & Magnus Henrekson, 2006. "Technological Breakthroughs and Productivity Growth," Research in Economic History, in: Research in Economic History, pages 1-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Heshmati, Almas, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Structure: Evidence from Swedish Micro and Small Firms," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0440, Stockholm School of Economics.
    3. Hargittai, Eszter, 1999. "Weaving the Western Web: explaining differences in Internet connectivity among OECD countries," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(10-11), pages 701-718, November.
    4. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    5. Kiiski, Sampsa & Pohjola, Matti, 2002. "Cross-country diffusion of the Internet," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 297-310, June.
    6. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.
    7. Hubert Gatignon & Jehoshua Eliashberg & Thomas S. Robertson, 1989. "Modeling Multinational Diffusion Patterns: An Efficient Methodology," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 231-247.
    8. World Bank, 2004. "World Development Indicators 2004," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13890.
    9. Dixon, Robert J, 1980. "Hybrid Corn Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1451-1461, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Firas H. Al-Hammadany & Almas Heshmati, 2011. "Analysis of the Purpose of Using Internet in Iraq: A Multinomial Logit Model," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 1(6), pages 1-41, October.
    2. Almas Heshmati & Firas H. Al-Hammadany & Ashraf Bany-Mohammed, 2013. "Analysis of Internet Usage Intensity in Iraq: An Ordered Logit Model," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 3(3), pages 1-3, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Xiaoqun, 2013. "Income disparity and digital divide: The Internet Consumption Model and cross-country empirical research," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 515-529.
    2. Bacha, Radia & Gasmi, Farid, 2022. "The broadband diffusion process and its determinants in Algeria: A simultaneous estimation," TSE Working Papers 22-1309, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. Al-Alawi, Baha M. & Bradley, Thomas H., 2013. "Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling Studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 190-203.
    4. Turk, Tomaž & Trkman, Peter, 2012. "Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 85-96.
    5. Bacha, Radia & Gasmi, Farid & Metevier, Samantha, 2024. "Broadband adoption in Algeria and the structural determinants of its pace," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(6).
    6. Islam, Towhidul & Fiebig, Denzil G. & Meade, Nigel, 2002. "Modelling multinational telecommunications demand with limited data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-624.
    7. Bewley, Ronald & Griffiths, William E., 2003. "The penetration of CDs in the sound recording market: issues in specification, model selection and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 111-121.
    8. Christophe Van den Bulte, 2000. "New Product Diffusion Acceleration: Measurement and Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 366-380, June.
    9. Marie-Estelle Binet & Lionel Richefort, 2011. "Diffusion of irrigation technologies: the role of mimicking behaviour and public incentives," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 43-48.
    10. Yuri Peers & Dennis Fok & Philip Hans Franses, 2012. "Modeling Seasonality in New Product Diffusion," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 351-364, March.
    11. Krishnan, Trichy V. & Feng, Shanfei & Jain, Dipak C., 2023. "Peak sales time prediction in new product sales: Can a product manager rely on it?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    12. Lüdering, Jochen, 2014. "The measurement of internet availability and quality in the context of the discussion on digital divide," Discussion Papers 65, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    13. Ad van den Oord & Arjen van Witteloostuijn, 2018. "A multi-level model of emerging technology: An empirical study of the evolution of biotechnology from 1976 to 2003," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-27, May.
    14. Dohse, Dirk & Lim, Cheng Yee, 2016. "Macro-geographic location and internet adoption in poor countries: What is behind the persistent digital gap?," Kiel Working Papers 2067, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Peters, Kay & Albers, Sönke & Kumar, V., 2008. "Is there more to international Diffusion than Culture? An investigation on the Role of Marketing and Industry Variables," EconStor Preprints 27678, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. Nikolaos E. Petridis & Georgios Digkas & Leonidas Anastasakis, 2020. "Factors affecting innovation and imitation of ICT in the agrifood sector," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 501-514, November.
    17. Richard Perkins & Eric Neumayer, 2004. "The international diffusion of new technologies: a multi-technology analysis of latecomer advantage and global economic integration," Development and Comp Systems 0407001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Dec 2004.
    18. Laciana, Carlos E. & Rovere, Santiago L. & Podestá, Guillermo P., 2013. "Exploring associations between micro-level models of innovation diffusion and emerging macro-level adoption patterns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1873-1884.
    19. Jongsu Lee & Minkyu Lee, 2009. "Analysis on the growth of telecommunication services: a global comparison of diffusion patterns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(24), pages 3143-3150.
    20. Pick, James B. & Sarkar, Avijit & Johnson, Jeremy, 2015. "United States digital divide: State level analysis of spatial clustering and multivariate determinants of ICT utilization," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 16-32.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    technology diffusion; Internet; panel data; technology adoption; Gompertz model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
    • L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0099. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Korpi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ratiose.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.