[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/halshs-00613161.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply

Author

Listed:
  • Sèna Kimm Gnangnon

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
This paper contributes to the established literature both on the side of fiscal consolidation (for e.g. Alesina and Perotti 1995; Alesina et al. 2010) and that of aid supplies (for e.g. Mosley 1985; Faini, 2006) by investigating the effects of fiscal episodes in OECD donor countries on their aid effort vis-à-vis the developing countries. We use descriptive statistics provided by Alesina and Ardagna (2010) on episodes of fiscal consolidation and stimuli in OECD countries and regression models to perform this analysis. The study is performed on a sample of 19 OECD DAC countries as well as on sub-samples for robustness check and over the period 1970-2007. Overall, the results suggest that the episodes of fiscal consolidation and the size of these fiscal austerity policies in OECD DAC countries lead to the curtailment of aid effort. Whilst during periods of fiscal expansion, aid expenditures increase, the size of these fiscal expansion policies may have an opposite effect. The fiscal austerity measures currently adopted by OECD DAC countries are likely to result in aid shortfalls to developing countries, with these effects likely be higher in the "Like-minded Donor countries".

Suggested Citation

  • Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2011. "The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply," Working Papers halshs-00613161, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00613161
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00613161
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00613161/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 488-545.
    3. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2001. "Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 641-672, November.
    4. Rudiger Ahrend & Pietro Catte & Robert Price, 2006. "Interactions Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy: How Monetary Conditions Affect Fiscal Consolidation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 521, OECD Publishing.
    5. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "Does right or left matter? Cabinets, credibility and fiscal adjustments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 2447-2468, December.
    6. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alesina, Alberto & Dollar, David, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
    8. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
    9. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    11. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    12. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Dang, Hai-Anh & Knack, Stephen & Rogers, F. Halsey, 2013. "International aid and financial crises in donor countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 232-250.
    14. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Giovanni S. F. Bruno, 2005. "Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel-data models with a small number of individuals," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(4), pages 473-500, December.
    16. Maizels, Alfred & Nissanke, Machiko K., 1984. "Motivations for aid to developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(9), pages 879-900, September.
    17. Paxton, Pamela & Knack, Stephen, 2008. "Individual and country-level factors affecting support for foreign aid," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4714, The World Bank.
    18. Chong, Alberto & Gradstein, Mark, 2008. "What determines foreign aid? The donors' perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-13, August.
    19. Sam Jones, 2011. "Aid Supplies Over Time: Accounting for Heterogeneity, Trends and Dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-004, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Anne Boschini & Anders Olofsgård, 2007. "Foreign aid: An instrument for fighting communism?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 622-648.
    21. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    22. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
    24. Ronald U. Mendoza & Ryan Jones & Gabriel Vergara, 2009. "Will the global financial crisis lead to lower foreign aid? A first look at United States ODA," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2009-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    25. James P. Allan & Lyle Scruggs, 2004. "Political Partisanship and Welfare State Reform in Advanced Industrial Societies," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 496-512, July.
    26. Heylen, Freddy & Everaert, Gerdie, 2000. "Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Multivariate Analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 103-124, October.
    27. G. S. Maddala, 1987. "Limited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(3), pages 307-338.
    28. Round, Jeffery I. & Odedokun, Matthew, 2004. "Aid effort and its determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 293-309.
    29. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Foreign aid and fiscal policy," Development Working Papers 212, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    30. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
    31. Thérien, Jean-Philippe & Noël, Alain, 2000. "Political Parties and Foreign Aid," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(1), pages 151-162, March.
    32. Beenstock, Michael, 1980. "Political econometry of official development assistance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 137-144, February.
    33. Alberto Alesina, 2000. "The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 7496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    35. Tingley, Dustin, 2010. "Donors and domestic politics: Political influences on foreign aid effort," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 40-49, February.
    36. Michael A. Clemens & Todd J. Moss, 2007. "The ghost of 0.7 per cent: origins and relevance of the international aid target," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(1), pages 3-25, February.
    37. Tingley, Dustin, 2010. "Corrigendum to "Donors and Domestic Politics: Political Influences on Foreign Aid Effort" [Q. Rev. Econ. Finance 50 (2010) 40-49]," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 244-244, May.
    38. Mosley, Paul, 1985. "The Political Economy of Foreign Aid: A Model of the Market for a Public Good," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 373-393, January.
    39. McGillivray, Mark, 1989. "The allocation of aid among developing countries: A multi-donor analysis using a per capita aid index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 561-568, April.
    40. Stéphanie Guichard & Mike Kennedy & Eckhard Wurzel & Christophe André, 2007. "What Promotes Fiscal Consolidation: OECD Country Experiences," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 553, OECD Publishing.
    41. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    42. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    43. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer (ed.), 1990. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262521555, April.
    44. Sam Jones, 2011. "Aid Supplies Over Time Accounting for Heterogeneity, Trends, and Dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series 004, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2011. "The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply," Working Papers 201122, CERDI.
    2. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00786009, HAL.
    3. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," Working Papers halshs-00786009, HAL.
    4. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," Working Papers 201301, CERDI.
    5. Gnangnon, Sena Kimm, 2013. "The consequences of fiscal episodes in OECD DAC countries for aid supply," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 302-313.
    6. Gravier-Rymaszewska, Joanna, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Joanna Gravier-Rymaszewska, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Dang, Hai-Anh & Knack, Stephen & Rogers, F. Halsey, 2013. "International aid and financial crises in donor countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 232-250.
    9. Jones, Sam, 2015. "Aid Supplies Over Time: Addressing Heterogeneity, Trends, and Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 31-43.
    10. Fuchs, Andreas & Dreher, Axel & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2014. "Determinants of Donor Generosity: A Survey of the Aid Budget Literature," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-199.
    11. Fleck, Robert K. & Kilby, Christopher, 2010. "Changing aid regimes? U.S. foreign aid from the Cold War to the War on Terror," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 185-197, March.
    12. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Kleis, Mischa & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel, 2016. "The long-run effect of fiscal consolidation on economic growth: Evidence from quantitative case studies," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-047, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2016.
    14. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    15. Charles Amo Yartey & Mr. Machiko Narita & Mr. Shelton M Nicholls & Mr. Joel Chiedu Okwuokei, 2012. "The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2012/276, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Sam Jones, 2011. "Aid Supplies Over Time: Accounting for Heterogeneity, Trends and Dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-004, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Sam Jones, 2011. "Aid Supplies Over Time Accounting for Heterogeneity, Trends, and Dynamics," WIDER Working Paper Series 004, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2017. "Structural economic vulnerability, openness and bilateral development aid flows," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 77-95.
    19. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    20. Yang, Weonho & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal adjustment: A tale of two approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 31-60.
    21. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2018. "Export Upgrading in Donor and Recipient Countries and Bilateral Development Aid Allocation," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(2), pages 249-276, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00613161. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.