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Les allocations chômage devraient-elles être dégressives ?

Author

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  • Bruno Coquet

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract
La dégressivité des allocations chômage est une réforme structurelle populaire et prisée par les organisations internationales dans leurs programmes d'ajustement structurel. Il s'agit de stimuler la reprise d'emploi en réduisant l'aléa moral des chômeurs indemnisés afin de diminuer les dépenses d'assurance chômage. Nous effectuons une revue de la littérature consacrée d'une part au profil optimal des allocations chômage et d'autre part aux formes d'aléa moral que des allocations chômage dégressives visent à éliminer. Ces travaux montrent que les indicateurs observés pour diagnostiquer la présence d'aléa moral lié à des allocations chômage constantes amplifient cet effet et sont imprécis sur son origine. Par ailleurs, les effets positifs prêtés à la dégressivité des allocations chômage ne sont pas attestés par la littérature, même sous des hypothèses très restrictives; ce profil n'est que rarement optimal car il doit être associé à une générosité élevée et qu'il induit des effets indésirables. Les travaux empiriques montrent que la dégressivité ralentirait les sorties du chômage, et que cette taxe sur le chômage de longue durée a au mieux de faibles effets agrégés sur les dépenses de l'assurance chômage. Ainsi la littérature conclut majoritairement à l'optimalité de droits constants, ou même progressifs. Pour limiter l'apparition d'aléa moral tout en renforçant l'optimalité des règles, des instruments bien plus précis peuvent être utilisés: un contrôle ciblé des chômeurs susceptibles d'aléa moral, l'adaptation automatique de la durée des droits potentiels à la conjoncture de l'emploi, ou encore l'utilisation à la marge de comptes individuels.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Coquet, 2017. "Les allocations chômage devraient-elles être dégressives ?," Working Papers hal-03457573, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03457573
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03457573
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Assurance chômage; Allocations chômage; Taux de remplacement; Comptes individuels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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