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Brahmin Left versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948-2020

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  • Amory Gethin

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)

  • Clara Martínez-Toledano

    (WIL - World Inequality Lab, Imperial College London)

  • Thomas Piketty

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)

Abstract
This paper provides new evidence on the long-run evolution of political cleavages in 21 Western democracies by exploiting a new database on the vote by socioeconomic characteristic covering over 300 elections held between 1948 and 2020. In the 1950s-1960s, the vote for democratic, labor, social democratic, socialist, and affiliated parties was associated with lower-educated and low-income voters. It has gradually become associated with higher-educated voters, giving rise to "multi-elite party systems" in the 2000s-2010s: high-education elites now vote for the "left", while high-income elites continue to vote for the "right". This transition has been accelerated by the rise of green and anti-immigration movements, whose key distinctive feature is to concentrate the votes of the higher-educated and lower-educated electorate, respectively. Combining our database with historical data on political parties' programs, we provide evidence that the reversal of the educational cleavage is strongly linked to the emergence of a new "sociocultural" axis of political conflict. We also discuss the evolution of other political cleavages related to age, geography, religion, gender, and the integration of new ethnoreligious minorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Amory Gethin & Clara Martínez-Toledano & Thomas Piketty, 2021. "Brahmin Left versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948-2020," World Inequality Lab Working Papers halshs-03226118, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wilwps:halshs-03226118
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03226118
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    2. Cyprien Batut & Ulysse Lojkine & Paolo Santini, 2024. "“Which side are you on?” A historical study of union membership composition in seven Western countries," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 205-287, April.
    3. Schmutz, Benoît & Verdugo, Gregory, 2023. "Do elections affect immigration? Evidence from French municipalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    4. Amory Gethin & Clara Martínez-Toledano & Thomas Piketty, 2022. "Brahmin Left Versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948–2020," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Klaus Desmet & Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín & Ömer Özak, 2022. "Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,003 Subnational Regions," NBER Working Papers 30428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Carlos Sanz & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Classical Right, New Right, and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 11179, CESifo.
    7. Zuazu, Izaskun, 2024. "Gender and the pandemic in political ideology: The case of Spain," ifso working paper series 37, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socioeconomics (ifso).
    8. Kim Leonie Kellermann, 2022. "Political inequality, political participation, and support for populist parties," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 461-482, December.
    9. Alizade, Jeyhun, 2024. "The Electoral Politics of Immigration and Crime," OSF Preprints h967e, Center for Open Science.
    10. Barth, Erling & Finseraas, Henning & Kjelsrud, Anders & Moene, Kalle, 2023. "Openness and the welfare state: risk and income effects in protection without protectionism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Windsteiger, Lisa, 2022. "The redistributive consequences of segregation and misperceptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-François & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy. The role of political parties’ stances in the European Central Bank’s parliamentary hearings," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Bottasso, Anna & Cerruti, Gianluca & Conti, Maurizio & Santagata, Marta, 2024. "Sailing Through History: The Legacy of Medieval Sea Trade On Migrant Perception and Extreme Right Voting," IZA Discussion Papers 16996, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Christian Joppke, 2023. "Explaining the Populist Right in the Neoliberal West," Societies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-20, April.

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