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MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy

Author

Listed:
  • Lionel Fontagné

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Erica Perego

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

  • Gianluca Santoni

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

Abstract
What will the global economy look like in a generation? The answer depends on the multiple forces driving long-term growth (demography, education, diffusion of technical progress, energy costs, investment and saving behaviour, international capital mobility) and requires a comprehensive framework to conceptualize them. We re-estimate the three-factor (capital, energy, labour) MAcro-econometric model of the Global Economy (MaGE), initially developed by Fouré et al. (2013), with a database covering 170 countries using state-of-the-art methods. We thus establish the long-term structural relationships that drive the dynamics of the World economy. The model projections to 2050 illustrate the expected changes in the World economy and their driving forces. In light of the projected volume of energy consumption, making these projections compatible with climate imperatives calls for increased technology sharing at the international level in order to decouple economic growth from energy use.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & Erica Perego & Gianluca Santoni, 2022. "MaGE 3.1: Long-term macroeconomic projections of the World economy," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03957177, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-03957177
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2022.08.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bellora, Cecilia & Fontagné, Lionel, 2023. "EU in search of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    2. Nejati, Mehdi & Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim, 2023. "How does ICT trade shape environmental impacts across the north-south regions? Intra-regional and Inter-regional perspective from dynamic CGE model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth models; Long-term growth; Energy use; Total Factor Productivity; Energy efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F64 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Environment

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