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Rational housing demand bubble

Author

Listed:
  • Lise Clain‐chamosset‐yvrard

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Xavier Raurich

    (UB - Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Thomas Seegmuller

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
We provide a unified framework with demand for housing over the life cycle and financial frictions to analyze the existence and macroeconomic effects of rational housing bubbles. We distinguish a housing price bubble, defined as the difference between the housing market price and its fundamental value, from a housing demand bubble, which corresponds to a situation where a pure speculative housing demand exists. In an overlapping generation exchange economy, we show that no housing price bubble occurs. However, a housing demand bubble may occur, generating a boom in housing prices and a drop in the interest rate, when households face a binding borrowing constraint. The multiplicity of steady states and endogenous fluctuations can occur when credit market imperfections are moderate. These fluctuations involve transitions between equilibria with and without a housing demand bubble that generate large fluctuations in housing prices consistent with observed patterns. We finally extend the basic framework to a production economy and we show that a housing demand bubble increases housing prices, which can still be characterized by large fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Lise Clain‐chamosset‐yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2023. "Rational housing demand bubble," Post-Print halshs-04120338, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04120338
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-023-01501-4
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04120338v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard, Lise & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2015. "Rational bubbles and macroeconomic fluctuations: The (de-)stabilizing role of monetary policy," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-15.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Xavier Raurich & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "Rational bubbles on assets with a fundamental value," Working Papers 2404, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    2. Dettoni, Robinson & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2024. "Stock market prices and Dividends in the US: Bubbles or Long-run equilibria relationships?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Dettoni, Robinson & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "Testing the hypothesis of duration dependence in the U.S. housing market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubble; Housing; Self-fulfilling fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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