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Finance and Synchronization

Author

Listed:
  • Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

    (Bank of England - Bank of England, CFM - Centro de Fisica de Materiales - CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain] - UPV / EHU - Universidad del País Vasco [Espainia] / Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea [España] = University of the Basque Country [Spain] = Université du pays basque [Espagne])

  • Jean Imbs

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jumana Saleheen

    (Bank of England - Bank of England)

Abstract
In the workhorse model of international real business cycles, financial integration exacerbates the cycle asymmetry created by country-specific supply shocks. The prediction is identical in response to purely common shocks in the same model augmented with simple country heterogeneity (e.g., where depreciation rates or factor shares are different across countries). This happens because common shocks have heterogeneous consequences on the marginal products of capital across countries, which triggers international investment. In the data, filtering out common shocks requires therefore allowing for country-specific loadings. We show that finance and synchronization correlate negatively in response to such common shocks, consistent with previous findings. But finance and synchronization correlate non-negatively, almost always positively, in response to purely country-specific shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Jean Imbs & Jumana Saleheen, 2019. "Finance and Synchronization," Post-Print halshs-01884379, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01884379
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.08.007
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    1. International business cycle synchronization: what is the role of financial linkages?
      by bankunderground in Bank Underground on 2016-04-06 11:30:09

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    Cited by:

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    2. Anagnostopoulos, Alexios & Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem & Faraglia, Elisa & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2022. "Cross country stock market comovement: A macro perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 34-48.
    3. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
    4. Gong, Chi & Kim, Soyoung, 2018. "Regional business cycle synchronization in emerging and developing countries: Regional or global integration? Trade or financial integration?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 42-57.
    5. Azcona, Nestor, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 190-201.
    6. Hannes Böhm & Julia Schaumburg & Lena Tonzer, 2022. "Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Europe," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 698-734, December.
    7. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Park, Cyn-Young & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2024. "International business cycle synchronization: A synthetic assessment," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Goetz, Martin R. & Gozzi, Juan Carlos, 2022. "Financial integration and the co-movement of economic activity: Evidence from U.S. states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    10. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2020. "Business cycle synchronization: Disentangling direct and indirect effect of financial integration in the Indian context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 272-287.
    11. Tang, Aidi & Yao, Wen, 2022. "The effects of financial integration during crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Claudio, João C. & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2020. "On the international dissemination of technology news shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 25/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
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    19. José De Gregorio, 2018. "Productivity in Emerging Market Economies: Slowdown or Stagnation?," Working Papers wp471, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    20. Martin R. Goetz & Juan Carlos Gozzi, 2020. "Financial Integration and the Co-Movement of Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States," International Finance Discussion Papers 1305, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "New synchronicity indices between real and financial cycles: Is there any link to structural characteristics and recessions in European Union countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 617-641, October.
    22. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Business Cycle Co-Movement in Europe: Trade, Industry Composition and the Single Currency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 121-139, February.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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