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Price vs. weather shock hedging for cash crops: ex ante evaluation for cotton producers in Cameroon

Author

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  • Antoine Leblois

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Philippe Quirion

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Benjamin Sultan

    (PARVATI - Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts - LOCEAN - Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques - MNHN - Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IPSL (FR_636) - Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNES - Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
In the Sudano-sahelian zone, which includes Northern Cameroon, the inter- annual variability of the rainy season is high and irrigation scarce. As a consequence, bad rainy seasons have a detrimental impact on crop yield. In this paper, we assess the risk mitigation capacity of weather index-based insurance for cotton farmers. We compare the ability of various indices, mainly based on daily rainfall, to increase the expected utility of a representative risk-averse farmer. We first give a tractable definition of basis risk and use it to show that weather index-based insurance is associated with a large basis risk, whatever the index considered. It has thus limited potential for income smoothing, a conclusion which is robust to the utility function. Second, in accordance with the existing agronomical literature we find that the length of the cotton growing cycle, in days, is the best performing index considered. Third, we show that using observed cotton sowing dates to define the length of the growing cycle significantly decreases the basis risk, compared to using simulated sowing dates. Finally we find that the gain of the weather-index based insurance is lower than that of hedging against cotton price fluctuations provided by the national cotton company. This casts doubt on the strategy of supporting weather-index insurances in cash crop sectors selling at international market prices without recommending any price stabilisation scheme.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Leblois & Philippe Quirion & Benjamin Sultan, 2014. "Price vs. weather shock hedging for cash crops: ex ante evaluation for cotton producers in Cameroon," Post-Print halshs-00967313, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00967313
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.021
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00967313
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    Cited by:

    1. Delpeuch, Claire & Leblois, Antoine, 2014. "The Elusive Quest for Supply Response to Cash-Crop Market Reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Cotton," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 521-537.
    2. Frédéric Kosmowski & Antoine Leblois & Benjamin Sultan, 2016. "Perceptions of recent rainfall changes in Niger: a comparison between climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive households," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 227-241, March.
    3. Nordmeyer, Eike Florenz & Danne, Michael & Musshoff, Oliver, 2023. "Can satellite-retrieved data increase farmers' willingness to insure against drought? – Insights from Germany," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    4. Ibrahim Njouenwet & Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou & Stephanie Vanessa Ngono Ashu & Robert Nouayou, 2021. "Contributions of Seasonal Rainfall to Recent Trends in Cameroon’s Cotton Yields," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-13, November.
    5. Ricome, Aymeric & Affholder, François & Gérard, Françoise & Muller, Bertrand & Poeydebat, Charlotte & Quirion, Philippe & Sall, Moussa, 2017. "Are subsidies to weather-index insurance the best use of public funds? A bio-economic farm model applied to the Senegalese groundnut basin," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 149-176.
    6. Leblois, A. & Le Cotty, T. & Maître d'Hôtel, E., 2020. "How Might Climate Change Influence farmers' Demand for Index-Based Insurance?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. Tiziano Distefano & Guido Chiarotti & Francesco Laio & Luca Ridolfi, 2018. "Spatial distribution of the international food prices: unexpected randomness and heterogeneity," SEEDS Working Papers 0118, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Jan 2018.
    8. Ji Guo & Jiajia Jin & Yinshan Tang & Xianhua Wu, 2019. "Design of Temperature Insurance Index and Risk Zonation for Single-Season Rice in Response to High-Temperature and Low-Temperature Damage: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-13, April.
    9. Glenn W. Harrison & Jia Min Ng, 2019. "Behavioral insurance and economic theory: A literature review," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 133-182, July.
    10. Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Mude, Andrew G., 2017. "Cash transfers and index insurance: A comparative impact analysis from northern Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 14-28.
    11. Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Mude, Andrew G., 2014. "Basis Risk and the Welfare Gains from Index Insurance: Evidence from Northern Kenya," MPRA Paper 59153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Huo, Ran & Octavio, Ramirez, 2017. "Basis risk and welfare effect of weather index insurance for smallholders in China," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252816, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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    price risk; Weather; index-based insurance; cash crop;
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