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Fertile Ground for Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Berman

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mathieu Couttenier

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Raphaël Soubeyran

    (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)

Abstract
We investigate how variations in soil productivity affect civil conflicts. We first present a model with heterogeneous land in which variations in input prices (fertilizers) affect appropriable rents and the opportunity costs of fighting. The theory predicts that spikes in input prices increase the likelihood of conicts through their effect on income and inequality, and that this effect is magni fied when soil fertility is naturally more heterogenous. We test these predictions using data on conict events covering all Sub-Saharan African countries at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude and longitude over the 1997-2013 period. We combine information on soil characteristics and worldwide variations in fertilizer prices to identify local exogenous changes in input costs. As predicted, variations in soil productivity triggered by variations in fertilizer prices are positively associated with conicts, especially in cells where land endowments are more heterogeneous. In addition, we find that the distribution of land fertility both within and across ethnic groups affects violence, and that the effect of between-group heterogeneity in soil quality is magnified in densely populated areas. Overall, our findings imply that inequality in access to fertile areas { an issue largely neglected in the literature dealing with the roots of Sub-Saharan African civil wars { constitutes a serious threat to peace at the local-level.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Raphaël Soubeyran, 2021. "Fertile Ground for Conflict," Post-Print hal-02315795, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02315795
    DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvz068
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02315795
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    2. Berlanda, Andrea & Cervellati, Matteo & Esposito, Elena & Rohner, Dominic & Sunde, Uwe, 2024. "Medication against conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Leblois, Antoine & Soubeyran, Raphael, 2023. "Crop prices and deforestation in the tropics," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. David Ubilava, 2023. "Climate, Crops, and Postharvest Conflict," Papers 2311.16370, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    5. Bruno Morando, 2024. "Testing the GAEZ agronomic model in the fields:Evidence from Uganda," Economics Department Working Paper Series n320-24.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    6. Amarasinghe, Ashani & Hodler, Roland & Raschky, Paul A. & Zenou, Yves, 2024. "Key players in economic development," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 40-56.
    7. Mathieu Couttenier & Jeremy Laurent-Lucchetti & Lore Vandewalle, 2023. "Inequality and Social Unrest in India," IHEID Working Papers 08-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    8. Fabien Candau & Tchapo Gbandi & Geoffroy Guepie, 2022. "Beyond the income effect of international trade on ethnic wars in Africa," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 517-534, July.
    9. Deininger, Klaus & Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Kussul, Nataliia & Shelestov, Andrii & Lemoine, Guido & Yailimova, Hanna, 2023. "Quantifying war-induced crop losses in Ukraine in near real time to strengthen local and global food security," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    11. Amolegbe, Khadijat Busola & Fontep, Eugenie Rose & Ahodode, Bernadin Géraud Comlan & Pagal, Emmanuelle Dorcas Mbanga & Ardelkrim, Araar, 2023. "Gendered Effects of Crop Diversification and Climate Shocks on Household Food Security Status in Nigeria," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334551, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    12. Fredriksson, Per G. & Gupta, Satyendra Kumar, 2023. "Irrigation and gender roles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    13. Del Prete, Davide & Di Maio, Michele & Rahman, Aminur, 2023. "Firms amid conflict: Performance, production inputs, and market competition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    14. Heger, Martin Philipp & Zens, Gregor & Bangalore, Mook, 2020. "Land and poverty: the role of soil fertility and vegetation quality in poverty reduction," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115658, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Alex Dickson & Ian A. MacKenzie & Petros G. Sekeris, 2022. "The role of markets on resource conflicts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 677-708, July.
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    17. Alex Dickson & Ian A MacKenzie & Petros G Sekeris, 2018. "The role of markets and preferences on resource conflicts," Working Papers 1819, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; land; fertility; inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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