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Climate induced land use change in France: impacts of agricultural adaptation and climate change mitigation
[Changements des usages des sols dus au changement climatique : impacts de l'adaptation et de l'atténuation du changement climatique dans le secteur agricole]

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Lungarska

    (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech)

  • Raja Chakir

    (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech)

Abstract
Interaction between mitigation and adaptation is a key question for the design of climate policies. In this paper, we study how land use adaptation to climate change impacts land use competition in the agriculture, forest and other land use (AFOLU) sector and how a mitigation policy in agriculture might affect this competition. We use for this purpose two sector-specific bio-economic models of agriculture and forest combined with an econometric land use shares model to simulate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (A2 and B1, 2100 horizon), and a greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture policy consisting of a tax of between 0 and 200 e/tCO2 equivalent. Our results show that both climate change scenarios lead to an increase in the area devoted to agriculture at the expense of forest which could have a negative impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change. The mitigation policy would curtail agricultural expansion, and thus could counteract the effects of land use adaptation to climate change. In other words, accounting for land use competition results in a reduction of the abatement costs of the mitigation policy in the agricultural sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Lungarska & Raja Chakir, 2018. "Climate induced land use change in France: impacts of agricultural adaptation and climate change mitigation [Changements des usages des sols dus au changement climatique : impacts de l'adaptation e," Post-Print hal-02628936, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02628936
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.12.030
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    7. Mohammed Gedefaw & Yan Denghua & Wang Hao & Basaznew Alemu & Mersha Chanie & Genanew Agitew & Mohammed Gedefaw, 2018. "Determinant Factors Affecting Crop Production and Adoption of Soil and Water Conservation Practices In Semein Mountain National Park, Ethiopia," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 13(2), pages 42-46, July.
    8. Cocco, Valentin & Kervinio, Yann & Mouysset, Lauriane, 2023. "Relaxing the production-conservation trade-off: Biodiversity spillover in the bioeconomic performance of ecological networks," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    9. Lan Mu & Johannus Janmaat & Joanne Taylor & Lauren Arnold, 2023. "Attitudes and opportunities: comparing climate change adaptation intentions and decisions of agricultural producers in Shaanxi, China, and British Columbia, Canada," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-27, January.
    10. Pierre-Alain Jayet & Athanasios Petsakos & Raja Chakir & Anna Lungarska & Stéphane De Cara & Elvire Petel & Pierre Humblot & Caroline Godard & David Leclère & Pierre Cantelaube & Cyril Bourgeois & Mél, 2023. "The European agro-economic model AROPAj," Working Papers hal-04109872, HAL.
    11. Issam-Ali Moindjié & Corentin Pinsard & Francesco Accatino & Raja Chakir, 2022. "Interactions between ecosystem services and land use in France: A spatial statistical analysis [Interactions entre les services écosystémiques et l'utilisation des terres en France : une analyse st," Post-Print hal-03890135, HAL.
    12. Ollier, Maxime & Jayet, Pierre-Alain & Humblot, Pierre, 2024. "An assessment of the distributional impacts of autonomous adaptation to climate change from European agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    13. Thomas-Agnan, Christine & Laurent, Thibault & Ruiz-Gazen, Anne & Nguyen, T.H.A & Chakir, Raja & Lungarska, Anna, 2020. "Spatial simultaneous autoregressive models for compositional data: Application to land use," TSE Working Papers 20-1098, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    14. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn & Stephan, Dietrich & Gassmann, Franziska, 2021. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Adaptation in Agriculture: Evidence from Cropping Patterns of Ethiopia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315056, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Ying Xu & Lei Yao, 2021. "Integrating Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation into Land Use Optimization: A Case Study in Huailai County, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-19, November.
    16. Joe F. Bozeman & Rayne Bozeman & Thomas L. Theis, 2020. "Overcoming climate change adaptation barriers: A study on food–energy–water impacts of the average American diet by demographic group," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(2), pages 383-399, April.
    17. Richard KOENIG & Marielle BRUNETTE, 2023. "Climate change perception, impact and adaptation: Implications for crop insurance," Working Papers of BETA 2023-36, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spatial land use share model; greenhouse gas tax; climate change; adaptation; land rent; mitigation; agriculture;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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