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Why do carbon prices and price volatility change?

Author

Listed:
  • Boulis Maher Ibrahim

    (HWU - Heriot-Watt University [Edinburgh])

  • Iordanis Angelos Kalaitzoglou

    (Audencia Business School)

Abstract
An asymmetric information microstructural pricing model is proposed in which price responses to information and liquidity vary with every transaction. bid-ask quotes and price components account for learning by incorporating changing expectations of the rate of transacted volume (trading intensity) and the risk level of incoming trades. Analysis of European carbon futures transactions finds expected trading intensity to simultaneously increase the information component and decrease the liquidity component of price changes, but at different rates. This explains some conflicting results in prior literature. Further, the expected persistence in trading intensity explains the majority of the autocorrelations in the level and the conditional variance of price change; helps predict hourly patterns in returns, variance and the bid-ask spread; and differentiates the price impact of buy versus sell and continuing versus reversing trades.

Suggested Citation

  • Boulis Maher Ibrahim & Iordanis Angelos Kalaitzoglou, 2016. "Why do carbon prices and price volatility change?," Post-Print hal-01267062, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01267062
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.11.004
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Federico Galán-Valdivieso & Elena Villar-Rubio & María-Dolores Huete-Morales, 2018. "The erratic behaviour of the EU ETS on the path towards consolidation and price stability," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 689-706, October.
    2. Yinpeng Zhang & Zhixin Liu & Yingying Xu, 2018. "Carbon price volatility: The case of China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Zhong, Meirui & Zhang, Rui & Ren, Xiaohang, 2023. "The time-varying effects of liquidity and market efficiency of the European Union carbon market: Evidence from the TVP-SVAR-SV approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Wenjun Chu & Shanglei Chai & Xi Chen & Mo Du, 2020. "Does the Impact of Carbon Price Determinants Change with the Different Quantiles of Carbon Prices? Evidence from China ETS Pilots," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Zhikai Zhang & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Qunwei Wang, 2024. "The predictability of carbon futures volatility: New evidence from the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 557-584, April.
    6. Rannou, Yves, 2019. "Limit order books, uninformed traders and commodity derivatives: Insights from the European carbon futures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 387-410.
    7. Kalaitzoglou, Iordanis Angelos & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher, 2023. "Market conditions and order-type preference," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    8. Chang, Kai & Pei, Ping & Zhang, Chao & Wu, Xin, 2017. "Exploring the price dynamics of CO2 emissions allowances in China's emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 213-223.
    9. Huong Le & Andros Gregoriou, 2020. "How Do You Capture Liquidity? A Review Of The Literature On Low‐Frequency Stock Liquidity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 1170-1186, December.
    10. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    11. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    12. Man, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Sunpei & He, Yongda, 2024. "Dynamic risk spillover and hedging efficacy of China’s carbon-energy-finance markets: Economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment non-linear causal effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1397-1416.
    13. Chai, Shanglei & Zhou, P., 2018. "The Minimum-CVaR strategy with semi-parametric estimation in carbon market hedging problems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 64-75.

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