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National Carbon Reduction Commitments: Identifying the Most Consensual Burden Sharing

Author

Listed:
  • Gaël Giraud

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AFD - Agence française de développement, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier)

  • Hadrien Lantremange

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier)

  • Emeric Nicolas

    (Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier)

  • Olivier Rech

    (Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier)

Abstract
How could the burden of GHG emission reduction be shared among countries? We address this arguably basic question by purely statistical methods that do not rely on any normative judgment about the criteria according to which it should be answered. The sum of current Nationally Determined Contributions to reducing GHG emissions would result in an average temperature rise in 2100 of the order of 3°C to 3.2°C. Implementing policies that enable to achieve the objective of a worldwide average temperature rise below 2°C obviously requires setting a more consistent and efficient set of national emissions targets. While a scientific consensus has been reached about the global carbon budget that we are acing, given the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement, no such consensus prevails on how this budget is to be divided among countries. This paper proposes a Climate Liabilities Assessment Integrated Methodology (CLAIM) which enables to determine national GHG budgets compliant with any average temperature target and time horizon. Our methodology does neither resort to any scenario nor any simulation-based model. Rather, it computes the allocation of 2°C-compatible national carbon budgets which has a priori the highest probability of emerging from the international discussion, whatever being the criteria on which the latter might be based. As such it provides a framework ensuring the highest probability of reaching a consensus. In particular, it avoids the pitfall of arbitrarily assigning weights according, say, to "capacity" or "responsibility" criteria, and simultaneously unifies the different methodologies that have been proposed in the literature aiming at setting national GHG budgets. Sensitivity tests confirm the robustness of our methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaël Giraud & Hadrien Lantremange & Emeric Nicolas & Olivier Rech, 2017. "National Carbon Reduction Commitments: Identifying the Most Consensual Burden Sharing," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01673358, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01673358
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01673358
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simon Dietz & Nicholas Stern, 2015. "Endogenous Growth, Convexity of Damage and Climate Risk: How Nordhaus' Framework Supports Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(583), pages 574-620, March.
    2. Gert Goeminne & Erik Paredis, 2010. "The concept of ecological debt: some steps towards an enriched sustainability paradigm," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 691-712, October.
    3. Dietz, Simon & Stern, Nicholas, 2015. "Endogenous growth, convexity of damage and climate risk: how Nordhaus’ framework supports deep cuts in carbon emissions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58406, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Stephane Hallegatte & Mook Bangalore & Laura Bonzanigo & Marianne Fay & Tamaro Kane & Ulf Narloch & Julie Rozenberg & David Treguer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2016. "Shock Waves," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22787.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adeline Gueret & Paul Malliet & Aurélien Saussay & Xavier Timbeau, 2018. "An explorative evaluation of the climate debt," Post-Print hal-03475423, HAL.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f7llt62fa81lomjp6hpf3d4dh is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f7llt62fa81lomjp6hpf3d4dh is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; global warming; GHG emissions; distribution of GHG emissions; emissions gap; 2°C scenario; carbon budget; Intended nationally determined contribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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