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Assessing Tail Risk Using Expectile Regressions with Partially Varying Coefficients

Author

Listed:
  • Zongwu Cai

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansa)

  • Ying Fang

    (The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China)

  • Dingshi Tian

    (The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China)

Abstract
To characterize heteroskedasticity and nonlinearity as well as asymmetry in tail risk, this paper investigates a class of conditional (dynamic) expectile models with partially varying coefficients in which some coefficients are allowed to be constants but others are allowed to be unknown functions of random variables. A three-stage estimation procedure is proposed to estimate both the parametric constant coefficients and nonparametric functional coefficients, and their asymptotic properties are investigated under time series context, together with a new simple and easily implemented test for testing the goodness of fit of models and a bandwidth selector based on newly defined cross-validatory estimation for the expected forecasting expectile errors. The proposed methodology is data-analytic and of sufficient flexibility to analyze complex and multivariate nonlinear structures without suffering from the curse of dimensionality. Finally, the proposed model is illustrated by simulated data and applied to analyzing the daily data of the S&P500 return series.

Suggested Citation

  • Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Dingshi Tian, 2018. "Assessing Tail Risk Using Expectile Regressions with Partially Varying Coefficients," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201804, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201804
    as

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    File URL: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/2018Papers/201804.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cai, Zongwu, 2002. "Two-Step Likelihood Estimation Procedure for Varying-Coefficient Models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 189-209, July.
    2. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Yeh, Jin-Huei & Hsu, Yu-Chin, 2009. "Assessing value at risk with CARE, the Conditional Autoregressive Expectile models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 261-270, June.
    3. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-954, July.
    4. Werner Ehm & Tilmann Gneiting & Alexander Jordan & Fabian Krüger, 2016. "Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(3), pages 505-562, June.
    5. Johanna F. Ziegel, 2016. "Coherence And Elicitability," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 901-918, October.
    6. De Rossi, Giuliano & Harvey, Andrew, 2009. "Quantiles, expectiles and splines," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 179-185, October.
    7. Fabio Bellini & Valeria Bignozzi, 2015. "On elicitable risk measures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 725-733, May.
    8. Cai, Zongwu & Xiao, Zhijie, 2012. "Semiparametric quantile regression estimation in dynamic models with partially varying coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 413-425.
    9. Yao, Qiwei & Tong, Howell, 1996. "Asymmetric least squares regression estimation: a nonparametric approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19423, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Bellini, Fabio & Klar, Bernhard & Müller, Alfred & Rosazza Gianin, Emanuela, 2014. "Generalized quantiles as risk measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 41-48.
    11. Holger Dette & Ingrid Spreckelsen, 2004. "Some comments on specification tests in nonparametric absolutely regular processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 159-172, March.
    12. Cai, Zongwu & Fan, Jianqing & Yao, Qiwei, 2000. "Functional-coefficient regression models for nonlinear time series," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6314, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Jones, M. C., 1994. "Expectiles and M-quantiles are quantiles," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 149-153, May.
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    16. James W. Taylor, 2008. "Estimating Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Using Expectiles," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 231-252, Spring.
    17. Cai, Zongwu & Fan, Jianqing, 2000. "Average Regression Surface for Dependent Data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 112-142, October.
    18. Cai, Zongwu & Masry, Elias, 2000. "Nonparametric Estimation Of Additive Nonlinear Arx Time Series: Local Linear Fitting And Projections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 465-501, August.
    19. Shangyu Xie & Yong Zhou & Alan T. K. Wan, 2014. "A Varying-Coefficient Expectile Model for Estimating Value at Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 576-592, October.
    20. Pollard, David, 1991. "Asymptotics for Least Absolute Deviation Regression Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 186-199, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dingshi Tian & Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang, 2018. "Econometric Modeling of Risk Measures: A Selective Review of the Recent Literature," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201807, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectile; Heteroskedasticity; Nonlinearity; Varying Coefficients; Tail Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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