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On Testing Sustainability of Government Deficits in a Stochastic Environment

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  • Henning Bohn
Abstract
In recent years, a number of empirical studies have examined the long-run sustainability of U.S. debt policy. Some studies conclude that U.S. fiscal policy has been sustainable, others disagree. This paper argues that the issue should be reexamined, because the traditional sustainability test explicitly or implicitly assume that the rate of return on government debt is "on average" above the rate of economic growth, a condition that does not hold for historical U.S. data. The paper derives and implements a new test for sustainability hat does not rely on a particular relation between interest rates and growth rates. I conclude that U.S. fiscal policy has historically satisfied a sufficient condition for sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Henning Bohn, "undated". "On Testing Sustainability of Government Deficits in a Stochastic Environment," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:19-91
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    Cited by:

    1. Lehment, Harmen & Scheide, Joachim, 1992. "Die europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion: Probleme des Übergangs," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1513, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
    3. Michael Dotsey & Ching Sheng Mo, 1994. "The effects of fiscal policy in a neoclassical growth model," Working Paper 94-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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