[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fth/caldec/97-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin D. Hoover
  • Stephen J. Perez
Abstract
The effectiveness of one aspect of the London School of Economics (LSE) approach to econometrics is assessed in a simulation study. The paper uses a data set and nine models analogous to those in Lovell's (1983) study of data mining. A simplified general-to-specific algorithm is tested in a simulation framework. While the study documents some of the pitfalls of the general-to-specific approach, it is, on the whole, supportive of the effectiveness of the LSE methodology as applied to stationary data with relatively simple dynamics. The general-to-specific methodology clearly dominates the alternative search methodologies investigated by Lovell.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, "undated". "Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search," Department of Economics 97-27, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:caldec:97-27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/working_papers/97-27.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham Ernest, 1985. "Procrustean Econometrics: Stretching and Squeezing Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 68, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-174, Summer.
    4. Pagan, Adrian, 1987. "Three Econometric Methodologies: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 3-24.
    5. Gregory D. Hess & Christopher S. Jones & Richard D. Porter, 1994. "The predictive failure of the Baba, Hendry and Starr model of the demand for M1 in the United States," Research Working Paper 94-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    6. Anindya Banerjee, 1994. "Dynamic Specification And Testing For Unit Roots And Co-integration," Working Paper 914, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    7. Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
    8. repec:bla:ecorec:v:64:y:1988:i:187:p:344-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ericsson, Neil R. & Campos, Julia & Tran, Hong-Anh, 1990. "Pc-Give and David Hendry'S Econometric Methodology," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 10(1), April.
    10. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
    11. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. "Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    12. Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-678, May.
    13. Li, Hongyi & Maddala, G. S., 1997. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 297-318, October.
    14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Methodology: Alchemy or Science: Review Article," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1398-1413, September.
    15. P.C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(4), pages 344-359, December.
    16. Roger D. Blair & David L. Kaserman & James T. McClave, 1987. "Viewpoint," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 60-64, July.
    17. Hoover, Kevin D, 1988. "On the Pitfalls of Untested Common-Factor Restrictions: The Case of the Inverted Fisher Hypothesis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(2), pages 125-138, May.
    18. Thomas Mayer, 1992. "Truth versus precision in economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 307.
    19. Mayer, Thomas, 1980. "Economics as a Hard Science: Realistic Goal or Wishful Thinking?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 165-178, April.
    20. Hendry, D.F. & Richard, J.-F., 1987. "Recent developments in the theory of encompassing," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1987022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
    2. Harris Dellas & Kevin Hoover, 2003. "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Working Papers 11, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    3. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    5. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2004. "Truth and Robustness in Cross‐country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 765-798, December.
    6. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
    7. Andrade, Isabel, 1992. "The relationship between inflation and relative price variability: A multivariate approach," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9203, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    8. Castle Jennifer L. & Doornik Jurgen A & Hendry David F., 2011. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, February.
    9. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
    10. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    11. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 895-914, December.
    12. Schlitzer, Giuseppe, 1995. "Testing the stationarity of economic time series: further Monte Carlo evidence," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 125-144, June.
    13. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    14. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1999. "Encompassing and rational expectations: How sequential corroboration can imply refutation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-21.
    15. Spanos, Aris, 1989. "On Rereading Haavelmo: A Retrospective View of Econometric Modeling," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 405-429, December.
    16. McAleer, Michael, 1994. "Sherlock Holmes and the Search for Truth: A Diagnostic Tale," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 317-370, December.
    17. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2012. "The Caldwellian Methodological Pluralism: Wishful Thoughts and Personal Tendencies," MPRA Paper 44656, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Feb 2013.
    19. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    20. Oxley, L.T., 1995. "An expert systems approach to econometric modelling," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 379-383.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fth:caldec:97-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/educdus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.