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Agglomeration, migration, and regional growth: A CGE analysis for Uganda

Author

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  • Dorosh, Paul
  • Thurlow, James
Abstract
"Uganda has experienced rapid economic growth and poverty reduction over the past decade but has failed to significantly improve incomes in its northern regions where prolonged conflict has hindered growth. We consider three strategies to close this regional divide: (1) develop a north-south corridor to encourage regional trade, (2) accelerate growth in the southern capital city and encourage north-south migration, and (3) improve agricultural productivity in rural areas. We examine these strategies using a regionalized computable general equilibrium model, accounting for internal migration and productivity gains from urban agglomeration effects. Simulation results indicate that a north-south corridor benefits northern households, but its benefits are limited by the small size of northern urban centers and the low productivity of northern producers. Investing in the capital city accelerates economic growth but has little effect on other regions' welfare because of the city's weak growth linkages with other regions and small migration effects. Improving agricultural productivity, however, though less effective at stimulating national economic growth, generates broad-based welfare improvements in both rural and urban areas. We therefore conclude that without significant gains in agricultural productivity in the next decade, out-migration and urban-led growth centered in Kampala will be insufficient to significantly reduce poverty in northern Uganda. " from authors' abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Dorosh, Paul & Thurlow, James, 2009. "Agglomeration, migration, and regional growth: A CGE analysis for Uganda," IFPRI discussion papers 848, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:848
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    File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp00848.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ulimwengu, John & Funes, Jose & Headey, Derek & You, Liangzhi, 2009. "Paving the way for development?: The impact of transport infrastructure on agricultural production and poverty reduction in the Democratic Republic of Congo," IFPRI discussion papers 944, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Manfred Wiebelt & Rainer Schweickert & Clemens Breisinger & Marcus Böhme, 2011. "Oil revenues for public investment in Africa: targeting urban or rural areas?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 745-770, November.
    3. Tankari, Mahamadou & Badiane, Ousmane & Montaud, Jean-Marc, 2013. "When social goals meet economic goals: the double dividend of extending access to healthcare for farmers in Uganda," Conference papers 332430, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Wiebelt, Manfred & Pauw, Karl & Matovu, John Mary & Twimukye, Evarist & Benson, Todd, 2011. "Managing future oil revenues in Uganda for agricultural development and poverty reduction: A CGE analysis of challenges and options," Kiel Working Papers 1696, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Jean-Marc Montaud & Mahamadou Roufahi Tankari, 2013. "When social goals meet economic goals: the double dividend of extending free access to healthcare in Uganda," Working Papers hal-01880339, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; Poverty; Agricultural development; Spatial economics; Development strategies;
    All these keywords.

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