[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fir/econom/wp2015_03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic Trends in Developing Countries: Convergence or Divergence Processes?

Author

Listed:
Abstract
Recent years are characterized by both a rise in life expectancy and a further fall in fertility in the developing countries (DCs). These processes coexist with large heterogeneity according to the specific living conditions of countries. The aim of our research is to analyze the trends of specific demographic parameters regarding mortality and fertility, jointly with some socio-economic characteristics of more than 100 DCs, to assess if convergence patterns in demographic behaviors prevail or if marked differences persist. As the paths of mortality and fertility in fact differ deeply over space and time, we need a specific statistical multi-way analysis technique that consider the time series dimension. Thus, we apply Dynamic Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis of trajectories in order to evaluate at macro-level the main demographic trends of DCs in the 1995-2010 period. Results let us reconsider the processes of convergence and enlighten the heterogeneity among clusters.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Silvana Salvini & Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno & Isabella Corazziari, 2015. "Demographic Trends in Developing Countries: Convergence or Divergence Processes?," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2015_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    • Handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2015_03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://labdisia.disia.unifi.it/wp_disia/2015/wp_disia_2015_03.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015-04
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker & Tomas J. Philipson & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "The Quantity and Quality of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 277-291, March.
    2. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X, 1996. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1019-1036, July.
    3. Neumayer, Eric, 2003. "Beyond income: convergence in living standards, big time," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 275-296, September.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Pavel Grigoriev & France Meslé & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgeny Andreev & Agnieszka Fihel & Marketa Pechholdova & Jacques Vallin, 2014. "The Recent Mortality Decline in Russia: Beginning of the Cardiovascular Revolution?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(1), pages 107-129, March.
    6. François Bourguignon & Christian Morrisson, 2002. "Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820-1992," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 727-744, September.
    7. Ledyard Tucker, 1966. "Some mathematical notes on three-mode factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 31(3), pages 279-311, September.
    8. Shawn F. Dorius, 2008. "Global Demographic Convergence? A Reconsideration of Changing Intercountry Inequality in Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(3), pages 519-537, September.
    9. Coppi, Renato, 1994. "An introduction to multiway data and their analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-13, August.
    10. Pradhan, Menno & Sahn, David E. & Younger, Stephen D., 2003. "Decomposing world health inequality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 271-293, March.
    11. Ram, Rati, 2006. "State of the "life span revolution" between 1980 and 2000," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 518-526, August.
    12. Richard A. Easterlin, 2000. "The Worldwide Standard of Living since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 7-26, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luca Maria Pesando & GFC team, 2019. "Global Family Change: Persistent Diversity with Development," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 133-168, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno & Silvana Salvini & Isabella Corazziari, 2021. "Demographic trends in less and least developed countries: Convergence or divergence?," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 221-258, September.
    2. Diana Gutiérrez Posada & Fernando Rubiera Morollón & Ana Viñuela, 2018. "Ageing Places in an Ageing Country: The Local Dynamics of the Elderly Population in Spain," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 109(3), pages 332-349, July.
    3. Shawn F. Dorius, 2008. "Global Demographic Convergence? A Reconsideration of Changing Intercountry Inequality in Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(3), pages 519-537, September.
    4. Srinivas, Goli, 2014. "Demographic convergence and its linkage with health inequalities in India," MPRA Paper 79823, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2014.
    5. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2023. "Inequality Beyond GDP: A Long View," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(3), pages 533-554, September.
    6. Rubiane Daniele Cardoso Almeida & Philipp Ehrl & Tito Belchior Silva Moreira, 2021. "Social and Economic Convergence Across Brazilian States Between 1990 and 2010," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 225-246, August.
    7. Eric Neumayer, 2004. "HIV/AIDS and its impact on convergence in life expectancy, infant and child survival rates," HEW 0405001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gallardo-Albarrán, Daniel, 2018. "Health and economic development since 1900," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 228-237.
    9. Undp, 2011. "HDR 2011 - Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All," Human Development Report (1990 to present), Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), number hdr2011, September.
    10. Kenny, Charles, 2005. "Why Are We Worried About Income? Nearly Everything that Matters is Converging," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-19, January.
    11. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2007. "On the Determinants of Mortality Reductions in the Developing World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(2), pages 247-287, June.
    12. Vanesa Jordá & José Sarabia, 2015. "International Convergence in Well-Being Indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 1-27, January.
    13. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2018. "Well-being Inequality in the Long Run," Working Papers 0131, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    14. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
    15. Bienvenido Ortega & Antonio Casquero & Jesús Sanjuán, 2016. "Corruption and Convergence in Human Development: Evidence from 69 Countries During 1990–2012," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 691-719, June.
    16. Ximing Wu & Andreas Savvides & Thanasis Stengos, 2008. "The Global Joint Distribution of Income and Health," Working Papers 0807, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    17. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    18. Shawn F. Dorius, 2018. "Socioeconomic Status Mobility in the Modern World System: Growth and Allocation Effects," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 1049-1074, August.
    19. Ryan D. Edwards, 2010. "Trends in World Inequality in Life Span Since 1970," NBER Working Papers 16088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Decancq, Koen & Decoster, André & Schokkaert, Erik, 2009. "The Evolution of World Inequality in Well-being," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 11-25, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortality; Fertility; Developing Countries; Dynamic Factor Analysis; Cluster Analysis; Convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2015_03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabrizio Cipollini (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsfirit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.