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Foreign trade and equilibrium indeterminacy

Author

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  • Luis Aguiar-Conraria
  • Yi Wen
Abstract
We show that dependence of production on foreign inputs (or non-producible natural resources) can significantly increase the likelihood of indeterminacy. Payment of imported foreign factors of production may act as a semi-fixed cost, amplifying production externalities and returns to scale, making self-fulfilling expectations driven busyness cycles easier to arise. This is demonstrated using a standard neoclassical growth model. Calibration exercise shows that the required increasing returns to scale can be reduced by as much as 64% based on estimated share of foreign inputs in production for OECD countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2005. "Foreign trade and equilibrium indeterminacy," Working Papers 2005-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Wen, Yi, 2008. "A Note On Oil Dependence And Economic Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 717-723, November.
    2. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Wen, Yi, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," Working Papers 05-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    3. Kazuo Mino, 2009. "Preference Structure and Volatility in a Financially Integrated World," Springer Books, in: Takashi Kamihigashi & Laixun Zhao (ed.), International Trade and Economic Dynamics, pages 323-341, Springer.
    4. Zhang, Yan & Chen, Yan, 2012. "Tariff And Equilibrium Indeterminacy: A Global Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S3), pages 394-410, November.
    5. Luõs Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2007. "Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Oil Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 925-944, June.
    6. Mino, Kazuo, 2008. "Financial integration and volatility in a two-country world," MPRA Paper 16953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yunfang Hu & Kazuo Mino, 2009. "Financial Integration and Aggregate Stability," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 09-01, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    8. Zhang, Yan & Chen, Yan, 2008. "Tariff and Equilibrium Indeterminacy--A Note," MPRA Paper 10044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chen, Yan & Zhang, Yan, 2008. "Tariff Policy, Increasing Returns and Endogenous Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 10061, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Prices;

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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