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Disaster Risk and Asset Returns : An International Perspective

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Abstract
Recent studies have shown that disaster risk can generate asset return moments similar to those observed in the U.S. data. However, these studies have ignored the cross-country asset pricing implications of the disaster risk model. This paper shows that standard U.S.-based disaster risk model assumptions found in the literature lead to counterfactual international asset pricing implications. Given consumption pricing moments, disaster risk cannot explain the range of equity premia and government bill rates nor the high degree of equity return correlation found in the data. Moreover, the independence of disasters presumed in some studies generates counterfactually low cross-country correlations in equity markets. Alternatively, if disasters are all shared, the model generates correlations that are excessively high. We show that common and idiosyncratic components of disaster risk are needed to explain the pattern in consumption and equity co-movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen K. Lewis & Edith X. Liu, 2017. "Disaster Risk and Asset Returns : An International Perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 1199, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1199
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1199
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    Cited by:

    1. Lewis, Karen K. & Liu, Edith X., 2022. "How Can Asset Prices Value Exchange Rate Wedges?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The role of time‐varying rare disaster risks in predicting bond returns and volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 327-340, July.
    3. Marfè, Roberto & Pénasse, Julien, 2024. "Measuring macroeconomic tail risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Xu Cheng & Winston Wei Dou & Zhipeng Liao, 2022. "Macro‐Finance Decoupling: Robust Evaluations of Macro Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 685-713, March.
    5. Linhai Zhao & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Tapan Sarker & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2023. "Effects of COVID-19 on Global Financial Markets: Evidence from Qualitative Research for Developed and Developing Economies," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(1), pages 148-166, February.
    6. Lanfear, Matthew G. & Lioui, Abraham & Siebert, Mark G., 2019. "Market anomalies and disaster risk: Evidence from extreme weather events," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    7. Ashley Lim & Yihui Lan & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2020. "Asset pricing and energy consumption risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3813-3850, December.
    8. Qunzi Zhang, 2021. "One hundred years of rare disaster concerns and commodity prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 1891-1915, December.
    9. Galina Hale, 2024. "Climate Disasters and Exchange Rates: Are Beliefs Keeping up with Climate Change?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 253-291, March.
    10. Jian Chen & Jiaquan Yao & Qunzi Zhang & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2023. "Global Disaster Risk Matters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 576-597, January.
    11. Hale, Galina, 2024. "Climate Disasters and Exchange Rates: Are Beliefs Keeping up with Climate Change?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7cz1p5k7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rare disasters; Asset returns; International correlations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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