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How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?

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  • Marcel Fratzscher
Abstract
The paper assesses the extent to which the Group of Seven (G7) has been successful in its management of major currencies since the 1970s. Using an event-study approach, the paper finds evidence that the G7 has been overall effective in moving the U.S. dollar, yen and euro in the intended direction at horizons of up to three months after G7 meetings, but not at longer horizons. While the success of the G7 is partly dependent on the market environment, it is also to a significant degree endogenous to the policy process itself. The findings indicate that the reputation and credibility of the G7, as well as its ability to form and communicate a consensus among individual G7 members, are important determinants for the G7's ability to manage major currencies. The paper concludes by analyzing the factors that help the G7 build reputation and consensus, and by discussing the implications for global economic governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:24
    Note: Published as: Fratzscher, Marcel (2009), "How Successful Is the G7 in Managing Exchange Rates?," Journal of International Economics 79 (1): 78-88.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2009. "Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 335-358, September.
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    4. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. David-Jan Jansen & Mr. Ales Bulir, 2014. "Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2014/175, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "China's Dominance Hypothesis and the Emergence of a Tri‐polar Global Currency System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1343-1370, December.
    3. Fratzscher, Marcel & Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Stöhr, Tobias, 2019. "When Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective? Evidence from 33 Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 0(1), pages 132-156.
    4. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    5. Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Michel A. Robe, and Kirsten R. Soneson, 2013. "OPEC "Fair Price" Pronouncements and the Market Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    6. Giovanni Lombardo & Peter McAdam, 2010. "Incorporating financial frictions into new-generation macro models," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 13-16.
    7. Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2009. "Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 335-358, September.
    8. Stracca, Livio & Lo Duca, Marco, 2014. "The effect of G20 summits on global financial markets," Working Paper Series 1668, European Central Bank.
    9. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, September.
    10. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Satoshi Kawanishi, 2011. "The Information Improving Channel of Exchange Rate Intervention: How Do Official Announcements Work?," Discussion Papers 1116, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    11. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.
    12. Arnaud Mehl, 2013. "Large global volatility shocks, equity markets and globalisation: 1885-2011," Globalization Institute Working Papers 148, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Taro Esaka & Shinji Takagi, 2013. "Testing the Effectiveness of Market-Based Controls: Evidence From the Experience of Japan With Short-Term Capital Flows in the 1970s," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 45-69, February.
    14. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2015. "Foreign exchange market interventions and the $-¥ exchange rate in the long run," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(38), pages 4037-4055, August.
    15. Lo Duca, Marco & Stracca, Livio, 2015. "Worth the hype? The effect of G20 summits on global financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 192-217.
    16. Fiorella De Fiore & Oreste Tristani, 2010. "Financial conditions and monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 10-12.
    17. Keshab Raj Bhattarai & Sushanta K. Mallick, 2015. "Macroeconomic policy coordination in the global economy: VAR and BVAR-DSGE analyses," EcoMod2015 8610, EcoMod.
    18. Gabriela Contreras M. & Alfredo Pistelli M. & Camila Sáez M., 2013. "Efecto de Intervenciones Cambiarias Recientes en Economías Emergentes," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 122-137, April.
    19. Benjamin Born & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2011. "Macroprudential policy and central bank communication," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 107-110, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 78-88, September.
    21. Cornelia Holthausen & Huw Pill, 2010. "The forgotten markets: How understanding money markets helps us to understand the financial crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 2-5.
    22. Ales Bulir & Martin Cihak & David-Jan Jansen, 2018. "Does the Clarity of Monetary Policy Reports Reduce Volatility in Financial Markets?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(1), pages 2-17, February.
    23. Angela Maddaloni & José-Luis Peydró, 2010. "Bank lending standards and the origins and implications of the current banking crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 6-9.
    24. Fracasso, Andrea & Schiavo, Stefano, 2009. "Global imbalances, exchange rates adjustment and the crisis: Implications from network analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 601-619, September.
    25. Arash Habibi & Chin Lee, 2019. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rates on Stock Prices in G7 Countries," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 19-33.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General

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