The empirical performance of option-based densities of foreign exchange
Author
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-200313
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Keller, Joachim G. & Craig, Ben R., 2002. "The Empirical Performance of Option Based Densities of Foreign Exchange," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
References listed on IDEAS
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. "Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
- Figlewski, Stephen & Gao, Bin, 1999.
"The adaptive mesh model: a new approach to efficient option pricing,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 313-351, September.
- Stephen Figlewski & Bin Gao, 1998. "The Adaptive Mesh Model: A New Approach to Efficient Option Pricing," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-032, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
- Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-148, February.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Gabriela De Raaij & Burkhard Raunig, 2005. "Evaluating density forecasts from models of stock market returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 151-166.
- repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:61:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ben R. Craig & Ernst Glatzer & Joachim G. Keller & Martin Scheicher, 2003.
"The forecasting performance of German stock option densities,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
0312, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Keller, Joachim & Glatzer, Ernst & Craig, Ben R. & Scheicher, Martin, 2003. "The Forecasting Performance of German Stock Option Densities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,17, Deutsche Bundesbank.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Ivanova, Vesela & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2014. "Interest rate forecasts, state price densities and risk premium from Euribor options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 210-223.
- Ben R. Craig & Joachim G. Keller, 2004.
"The forecast ability of risk-neutral densities of foreign exchange,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
0409, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Craig, Ben R. & Keller, Joachim, 2005. "The forecast ability of risk-neutral densities of foreign exchange," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Ben R. Craig & Ernst Glatzer & Joachim G. Keller & Martin Scheicher, 2003.
"The forecasting performance of German stock option densities,"
Working Papers (Old Series)
0312, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Keller, Joachim & Glatzer, Ernst & Craig, Ben R. & Scheicher, Martin, 2003. "The Forecasting Performance of German Stock Option Densities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,17, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
- Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003.
"Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.
- Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2014.
"Static Hedging of Standard Options,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 3-46.
- Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2013. "Static Hedging of Standard Options," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 3-46, December.
- Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Static Hedging of Standard Options," Finance 0409016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carole Bernard & Oleg Bondarenko & Steven Vanduffel, 2021. "A model-free approach to multivariate option pricing," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 135-155, July.
- Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2021.
"Estimating real‐world probabilities: A forward‐looking behavioral framework,"
Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1797-1823, November.
- Ricardo Cris'ostomo, 2020. "Estimating real-world probabilities: A forward-looking behavioral framework," Papers 2012.09041, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
- Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2021. "Estimating real word probabilities: a forward-looking behavioral framework," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 7, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
- Monteiro, Ana Margarida & Tutuncu, Reha H. & Vicente, Luis N., 2008. "Recovering risk-neutral probability density functions from options prices using cubic splines and ensuring nonnegativity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 525-542, June.
- Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013.
"Forecasting with Option-Implied Information,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656,
Elsevier.
- Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Bo Young Chang, 2011. "Forecasting with Option Implied Information," CREATES Research Papers 2011-46, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv & Ricardo Reis, 2022.
"Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1553-1595.
- Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv & Ricardo Reis, 2014. "Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment," NBER Working Papers 20339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hilscher, Jens & Raviv, Alon, 2014. "Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 10078, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv & Ricardo Reis, 2014. "Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 74, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Hilscher, Jens & Raviv, Alon & Reis, Ricardo, 2022. "Inflating away the public debt? An empirical assessment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107543, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Lambrinoudakis, Costas & Skiadopoulos, George & Gkionis, Konstantinos, 2019.
"Capital structure and financial flexibility: Expectations of future shocks,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-18.
- Costas Lambrinoudakis & Michael Neumann & George Skiadopoulos, 2014. "Capital Structure and Financial Flexibility: Expectations of Future Shocks," Working Papers 731, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Jarno Talponen, 2013. "Matching distributions: Asset pricing with density shape correction," Papers 1312.4227, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
- Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Yarema Okhrin & Weining Wang, 2015.
"Uniform Confidence Bands for Pricing Kernels,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 376-413.
- Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Yarema & Wang, Weining, 2010. "Uniform confidence bands for pricing kernels," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-003, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Hardeep Singh Mundi, 2023. "Risk neutral variances to compute expected returns using data from S&P BSE 100 firms—a replication study," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 215-230, February.
- Chen, Ren-Raw & Hsieh, Pei-lin & Huang, Jeffrey, 2018. "Crash risk and risk neutral densities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 162-189.
- Refet Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005.
"Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 11-50,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Wolfers, Justin, 2005. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1899, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Refet Gurkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk," NBER Working Papers 11929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Macroeconomic derivatives: an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty, and risk," Working Paper Series 2005-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Wolfers, Justin & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2006. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 5466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Detlefsen, Kai & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Moro, Rouslan A., 2007. "Empirical pricing kernels and investor preferences," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-017, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Kliger, Doron & Levy, Ori, 2008. "Mood impacts on probability weighting functions: "Large-gamble" evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1397-1411, August.
- Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "Returns of claims on the upside and the viability of U-shaped pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-154, July.
More about this item
Keywords
options;JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CMP-2004-01-18 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ETS-2004-01-18 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FIN-2004-01-18 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2004-01-18 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2004-01-18 (International Finance)
- NEP-RMG-2004-01-18 (Risk Management)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.