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Gravity-defying trade

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Abstract
Heteroskedasticity and the existence of zero values in bilateral-trade data lead to significant biases in standard estimations of the gravity equation. We propose a new estimation technique that addresses these problems, and provide novel estimates of the gravity equation. Three results stand out. First, contrary to general belief, income elasticities are significantly smaller than 1, suggesting modifications to standard trade models. Second, simple estimators of the gravity equation greatly exaggerate the roles of distance and colonial links. Finally, bilateral trade between countries that have signed a free-trade agreement is 30 percent larger than that between other countries, a magnitude remarkably different from that predicted by conventional methods (above 100 percent).

Suggested Citation

  • J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Gravity-defying trade," Working Papers 03-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:03-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Gabriel J Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 4, pages 115-148, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Caselli, Francesco & Wilson, Daniel J., 2004. "Importing technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-32, January.
    5. Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
    6. Maria Cipollina & David Laborde Debucquet & Luca Salvatici, 2017. "The tide that does not raise all boats: an assessment of EU preferential trade policies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 199-231, February.
    7. Cooke, Edgar F A, 2011. "The impact of trade preferences on exports of developing countries: the case of the AGOA and CBI preferences of the USA," MPRA Paper 31439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Rubinstein, Yona, 2004. "Fixed Costs and FDI: The Conflicting Effects of Productivity Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Maria Paula Fontoura & Nuno Crespo, 2004. "Integration of CEECs into EU Markets: Structural Change and Convergence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2004/15, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Yakob, Ramsin & Nakamura, H. Richard & Ström, Patrik, 2018. "Chinese foreign acquisitions aimed for strategic asset-creation and innovation upgrading: The case of Geely and Volvo Cars," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 70, pages 59-72.
    11. Liza Jabbour, 2012. "‘Slicing the Value Chain’ Internationally: Empirical Evidence on the Offshoring Strategy by French Firms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(11), pages 1417-1447, November.
    12. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Hui Tong, 2008. "Bilateral FDI Flows: Threshold Barriers and Productivity Shocks," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 54(3), pages 451-470, September.
    13. Ben Dolman, 2007. "Patterns of Migration, Trade and Foreign Direct Investment across OECD Countries," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_030, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
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    15. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_022, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.

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